Nigeria’s capital importation, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), grew notably in 2025. It rose by 7% in Q4 2025 compared with Q3 2025, while year-on-year inflows surged by 88% compared with 2024

This increase was largely driven by portfolio investment, which recorded the most significant growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI) also increased, though it remained a relatively small share of total inflows.

Portfolio investment accounted for about 85% of total capital importation, followed by other investments such as trade credits, loans, and currency deposits at roughly 10%. FDI accounted for just 5%, underscoring its limited share despite its economic importance.

This means that for every $100 entering Nigeria, only about $5 goes into long-term productive investment, while $85 is channelled into short-term financial assets.

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China Dominates Nigeria’s Imports in Q1 2025

According to the latest foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 30 per cent of goods imported into Nigeria between January and March 2025 originated from China.

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Africa’s Slave Trade and Call for Accountability

The transatlantic and related slave trades fundamentally reshaped Africa’s demographic, economic, and social trajectory, with effects that are still visible today.

In March 2026, the United Nations General Assembly reinforced this reality by adopting a resolution that recognises the slave trade in Africa as the “gravest crime against humanity,” while also calling for an apology from member states and the establishment of a reparations fund.

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How safe has Borno State been for its residents since 2014

At about 7:24 p.m. on March 16, 2026, multiple explosions occurred at three locations in Maiduguri, Borno State. The blasts affected crowded and strategic areas, including the Post Office Flyover, the Maiduguri Monday Market, and the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, locations typically busy with civilian activity. By the end of the night, 23 people had been confirmed dead, while 108 others sustained varying degrees of injuries.

According to the spokesperson of the Borno State Police Command, ASP Nahum Daso, preliminary findings indicate that the attacks may have been carried out by suspected suicide bombers.

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Merry Christmas. We hope the season has given you a moment to slow down, catch your breath, and enjoy time with the people that matter.

Throughout 2025, Marina and Maitama followed the choices made in government and the realities faced by the private sector, unpacking how policies shape markets, businesses, and everyday life. It has been a year of big shifts, tough trade-offs, and important conversations, and we’re grateful you stayed with us through it all.

As we look ahead to 2026, our commitment remains the same: to serve you even better with clear, data-driven stories that make sense of policy and business in Nigeria.

Below are the five most-read Marina and Maitama stories of 2025.

Top Pick 1

The most-read Marina and Maitama story of 2025 was “NUPENG vs Dangote Refinery: A Brewing Clash Over Union Rights and Fuel Distribution.” It examined the growing clash between the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, a dispute that pushed labour rights in Nigeria’s oil sector into the national spotlight.

At the centre of the story were NUPENG’s allegations that Dangote barred newly recruited truck drivers from joining unions, despite constitutional and labour law protections. Tensions escalated after the refinery rolled out its own Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) truck fleet, which the union viewed as a threat to long-standing fuel distribution jobs.

Government mediation produced a brief truce, but its collapse triggered strike threats, fuel shortages, and sharp price spikes in several states. Beyond labour, the episode raised wider concerns about market power, fuel pricing, and how Nigeria balances efficiency with workers’ rights as the Dangote refinery reshapes the downstream oil sector.

Top Pick 2

The second most-read Marina and Maitama story of 2025, “The Rise and Reward of Nigeria’s 47-Month High Foreign Reserves,” examined Nigeria’s climb to a five-year high in external buffers, with gross foreign reserves rising to $41.31 billion, their strongest level since November 2021.

At the centre of the story was how stronger reserves translate into economic stability. It showed how higher reserves help steady the naira, lower Nigeria’s Eurobond borrowing costs, and improve investor confidence by reducing perceived risk in the economy.

The analysis also traced what drove the rebound, from improved crude oil production and rising non-oil exports to key Central Bank reforms in the foreign exchange market.

Top Pick 3

The third most-read Marina and Maitama story of 2025, “Nigeria’s First Interest Rate Change of the Year and What It Means for Borrowing and Growth,” examined the Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to cut the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points to 27%, marking Nigeria’s first rate adjustment of the year after an extended tightening cycle.

At the centre of the story was the tension between high borrowing costs and economic growth. It showed that despite Nigeria having one of the highest interest rates in Africa, credit to the private sector continued to expand, suggesting that businesses were borrowing out of necessity rather than confidence, driven by inflation, rising operating costs, and limited financing alternatives.

The analysis also explored the policy risks behind the rate cut. While the CBN pointed to slowing inflation and improving macro indicators, the story questioned whether recent disinflation was partly the result of CPI rebasing rather than real relief in living costs.

Top Pick 4

The fourth most-read Marina and Maitama story of 2025, “Sowing Trust and Growing Science in Nigeria’s GMO Debate and “Conoil Sees Profit Decline in H1 2025,” examined two very different but equally important shifts shaping Nigeria’s economy, one in corporate performance under deregulation, the other in science-led food policy.

At the centre of the Marina analysis was Conoil Plc’s sharp 89% year-on-year drop in profit after tax in the first half of 2025, highlighting the pressures facing downstream oil marketers as fuel price deregulation, weaker demand, rising costs, and tighter financing reshape the sector. The story showed that while deregulation is a major backdrop, broader macroeconomic stress and the emergence of new competitors like the Dangote Refinery are also testing traditional business models.

The Maitama angle turned to Nigeria’s growing GMO debate, unpacking the science, regulation, and public trust issues surrounding genetically modified crops. It explained Nigeria’s regulatory framework under the NBMA, Nigeria’s position as one of Africa’s leading GMO adopters, and evidence showing how biotechnology can support food security.

Top Pick 5

The fifth most-read Marina and Maitama story of 2025, “Nigerian Investors Drive Domestic Portfolio Growth as Financial Services Take the Lead,” examined how shifting investor behaviour and regulatory reform are reshaping Nigeria’s financial services landscape.

At the centre of the Marina analysis was the rise in domestic portfolio investment on the Nigerian Exchange, which surged by over 200% in the first seven months of 2025. The story showed how Nigerian investors increasingly drove market activity, with financial services accounting for the bulk of trading, reflecting renewed confidence in local equities but also exposing the market’s growing sector concentration risk.

The Maitama angle focused on the newly signed Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Bill, unpacking its ambition to strengthen the sector through higher capital requirements and compulsory coverage. While the reforms aim to boost resilience and support Nigeria’s $1 trillion economy goal, the story raised concerns about smaller insurers being squeezed out, possible consolidation, higher premiums, and whether the changes will expand insurance penetration or further narrow the market.

We look forward to a 2026 where policy choices are clearer, businesses are stronger, and the economy works better for all.

The House of Representatives has approved President Bola Tinubu’s request to raise over $2.3 billion from external sources to help bridge Nigeria’s 2025 budget deficit, refinance maturing Eurobonds, and issue Nigeria’s first sovereign Sukuk in the international capital market.

It’s another chapter in Nigeria’s long story of borrowing to stay afloat, a pattern that continues to shape the nation’s fiscal health and the lives of its citizens.

Despite regulations like the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2007, which mandates borrowing only for capital investments and human development, the rules are often ignored or loosely enforced. The result is excessive borrowing that rarely translates into productive investments.

Nigeria’s debt profile has significantly increased in the last 13 years, from N7.6 trillion in 2012 to N149.4 trillion in 2025.

Several factors have driven Nigeria’s deepening debt crisis. Among them is Nigeria’s heavy reliance on borrowing and a consistent pattern of deficit financing, with the government having increasingly turned to both domestic and foreign loans to bridge budget shortfalls.

Secondly, the Naira’s depreciation has worsened the cost of servicing external debts. Following the Naira devaluation in June 2023 and June 2024, the exchange rate fluctuated from about N460 to N1500 per dollar, increasing the burden on existing foreign obligations.

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In case you missed it, Nigeria recorded its first interest rate cut of the year, decided at the 302nd meeting of the MPC held on in 22nd and 23rd of September 2025, lowering the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.5% to 27%.

The decision also signals a cautious effort to stimulate growth by easing borrowing costs for households and businesses. After sixteen rate hikes between 2022 and 2024, this small but symbolic shift suggests the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is becoming more confident that inflation is finally slowing.

Meanwhile, credit to the private sector has continued to grow, showing that businesses keep borrowing despite higher costs, often out of necessity rather than optimism.

This raises a bigger question: does the recent disinflation trend reflect genuine relief, or is it partly the result of the CPI rebasing that changed how inflation is measured?

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Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the benchmark interest rate, was most recently adjusted to 27.00% in September 2025, following a 50 basis point reduction from 27.50%. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) lowered the rate because of slowing inflation, aiming to make borrowing cheaper and encourage spending to boost the economy, while also aiming to maintain stability and prevent excessive price increases.

Between January 2022 and September 2025, the Central Bank raised interest rates 16 times, reflecting a tightening stance in response to inflationary pressures. However, in 2025, the rate has only been raised once, suggesting a shift in policy towards caution and possibly signaling greater confidence in moderating inflation trends.

Even at 27%, Nigeria’s interest rate still remains the third highest in Africa, trailing only Zimbabwe (35%) and Ghana (28%). This places Nigeria ahead of other high-rate economies such as Malawi (26%), Egypt (25.5%), and Congo (25%), proving Nigeria’s position as one of the most expensive environments for borrowing in Africa.

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In a statement, the refinery explained that the decision was not arbitrary but a response to “repeated acts of sabotage” which, it said, posed safety risks and disrupted operations. Management added that the move was necessary to protect the multi-billion-dollar facility and keep it running efficiently.

The dismissals follow weeks of public attention on the refinery, including earlier tensions with NUPENG that led to government mediation and a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in September 2025. While those issues centered on union participation, the company has not linked the latest action to that dispute.

You can revisit last week’s Marina and Maitama piece; “NUPENG vs Dangote Refinery: A Brewing Clash Over Union Rights and Fuel Distribution” for a deeper dive into the roots of the Dangote-NUPENG dispute, exploring the why, how, and when behind the refinery–union clash.

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The rift between the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) and Dangote Petroleum Refinery escalated into the threat of a nationwide strike. At the heart of the dispute are accusations of anti-union practices, broken agreements, and fears of job losses in Nigeria’s already fragile downstream oil sector.

The flashpoint lies in NUPENG’s claim that Dangote Petroleum Refinery is blocking new truck drivers from unionising. The union alleges that drivers are being compelled to sign contracts barring them from joining any labour body, an act it says strips workers of their constitutional right to freedom of association.

The dispute intensified with Dangote’s unveiling of a new fleet of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) trucks, designed to transport petroleum products directly from the refinery to the market. While the refinery presents this as innovation and efficiency, NUPENG sees a threat. For decades, its members have been the backbone of fuel distribution in Nigeria, and the union has not hesitated to resort to strikes whenever it believes those jobs or rights are under pressure.

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Nigeria’s gross foreign reserves have climbed to $41.31 billion, their highest level since November 25, 2021, when they last stood at $41.30 billion, making the current figure a 47-month peak.

Foreign exchange reserves, the stock of external assets such as foreign currencies, gold, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) held by the Central Bank, serve as a crucial buffer. They help Nigeria meet international payment obligations, stabilise the naira, and strengthen investor confidence.

This increase is being attributed to rising foreign exchange inflows, supported by higher oil production, stronger export earnings, and targeted Central Bank policies.

High foreign reserves give a country stability, credibility, and resilience. They make it easier for governments to defend the currency, for businesses to operate with predictable costs, and for investors to commit long-term and short term capital.

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Nigeria’s gross foreign reserves have climbed to $41.31 billion, their highest level since November 25, 2021, when they last stood at $41.30 billion, making the current figure a 47-month peak.

Foreign exchange reserves, the stock of external assets such as foreign currencies, gold, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) held by the Central Bank, serve as a crucial buffer. They help Nigeria meet international payment obligations, stabilise the naira, and strengthen investor confidence.

This increase is being attributed to rising foreign exchange inflows, supported by higher oil production, stronger export earnings, and targeted Central Bank policies.

High foreign reserves give a country stability, credibility, and resilience. They make it easier for governments to defend the currency, for businesses to operate with predictable costs, and for investors to commit long-term and short term capital.

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We release in-depth research publications and publish compelling data-driven reports on a wide range of topics.

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Marina

Nigerian Investors Drive Domestic Portfolio Growth as Financial Services Take the Lead

In its latest report, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) revealed that domestic portfolio investment (DPI), investments in stocks of Nigerian companies, surged by 212 per cent between January and July 2025, rising from N535.54 billion in January to N1.67 trillion in July.

The highest increase occurred between June and July, when domestic transactions increased by 161 per cent, the sharpest month-on-month increase in the seven months under review. According to the NGX, this surge was largely driven by block trades, meaning a large volume of transactions took place within a short window.

The trend suggests that Nigerians are renewing their interest in the local stock market, particularly in banking, consumer goods, and financial services, as they seek avenues to grow and preserve wealth. Since domestic portfolio investments are driven by local participation, this surge essentially reflects increased confidence among Nigerian investors.

From the beginning of the year, DPI has shown notable fluctuations. It started at N535.54 billion in January, declined to N466.82 billion in February, and further dipped to its lowest point of N415.62 billion in March before it started picking up.

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Marina

Nigerian Investors Drive Domestic Portfolio Growth as Financial Services Take the Lead

In its latest report, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) revealed that domestic portfolio investment (DPI), investments in stocks of Nigerian companies, surged by 212 per cent between January and July 2025, rising from N535.54 billion in January to N1.67 trillion in July.

The highest increase occurred between June and July, when domestic transactions increased by 161 per cent, the sharpest month-on-month increase in the seven months under review. According to the NGX, this surge was largely driven by block trades, meaning a large volume of transactions took place within a short window.

The trend suggests that Nigerians are renewing their interest in the local stock market, particularly in banking, consumer goods, and financial services, as they seek avenues to grow and preserve wealth. Since domestic portfolio investments are driven by local participation, this surge essentially reflects increased confidence among Nigerian investors.

From the beginning of the year, DPI has shown notable fluctuations. It started at N535.54 billion in January, declined to N466.82 billion in February, and further dipped to its lowest point of N415.62 billion in March before it started picking up.

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Marina

Conoil Sees Profit Decline in H1 2025

Conoil Plc has reported a 89 per cent year-on-year drop in its profit after tax for the half-year ended June 30, 2025, falling to N900.4 million from N8.02 billion in the same period of 2024.

This is according to the unaudited financial statement half-year report for H1 2025, recently released. The slump occurred despite a significantly lower tax expense of N246.6 million, compared to N2.20 billion in H1 2024, a reduction primarily driven by a decline in pre-tax earnings from N10.22 billion to N1.15 billion. The lower taxable base, coupled with the company’s reduced revenue, naturally cut the amount of tax payable. The company’s revenue fell by 20.4 per cent year-on-year to N143.65 billion, down from N180.57 billion in H1 2024.

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Marina

Conoil Sees Profit Decline in H1 2025

Conoil Plc has reported a 89 per cent year-on-year drop in its profit after tax for the half-year ended June 30, 2025, falling to N900.4 million from N8.02 billion in the same period of 2024.

This is according to the unaudited financial statement half-year report for H1 2025, recently released. The slump occurred despite a significantly lower tax expense of N246.6 million, compared to N2.20 billion in H1 2024, a reduction primarily driven by a decline in pre-tax earnings from N10.22 billion to N1.15 billion. The lower taxable base, coupled with the company’s reduced revenue, naturally cut the amount of tax payable. The company’s revenue fell by 20.4 per cent year-on-year to N143.65 billion, down from N180.57 billion in H1 2024.

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Marina

GTBank Hits N100 Per Share, Cools Off After Historic Surge

On July 16, 2025, Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) became the first Nigerian bank to cross the N100 per share mark on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), closing at N101.

This is a major milestone for the banking sector, where most stocks typically trade below this range. Until now, only heavyweights in cement, oil, telecoms, and agriculture, like Dangote Cement, MTN Nigeria, Seplat, and Presco, have occupied the N100+ zone. GTCO’s entry into this group signals rising investor confidence in its performance and long-term growth.

GTCO’s rise came shortly after its listing on the London Stock Exchange, a move seen as a bid to attract more global capital. But soon after, the stock dropped to N93.05.

Since hitting the N101 peak, GTCO shares have seen few daily changes. Between July 17 and July 25, prices ranged between N93 and N95. By July 25, it closed at N94.45. The pullback is not unusual after a breakout, and the stock appears to be settling into a stronger price band compared to earlier months.

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Marina

Dangote Refinery Gears Up for the Stock Market in 2026

The CEO and Founder of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has announced plans to list the group’s $20 billion oil refinery on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) by the end of 2026, and possibly on the London Stock Exchange as well. This move would mark the first listing of its kind in Nigeria’s oil and gas downstream sector and could reshape the structure of Nigeria’s capital market and the oil and gas capital market sector.

The proposed listing signals a deepening of Nigeria’s capital market, potentially attracting global investors, injecting foreign exchange into the economy, and demonstrating that Nigeria can support large-scale industrial listings. For a capital market often dominated by banks, telecoms, and FMCGs, this could mark a shift toward strategic sectors like energy infrastructure.

Nigeria’s Bumpy Stock Market, But Gaining Confidence

The NGX All Share Index, which tracks the general health of the stock market. In 2024, it dipped as low as 96,579 points, but things changed in 2025. As investors gained more confidence, the market began to bounce back, reaching its highest in over two years.

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Nigeria’s Stance as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Threaten Oil Shock

Global crude oil prices are projected to surge as tensions escalate in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategic waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows (about 20% of global oil and gas), is under renewed threat. Iran, in response to U.S. and Israeli actions, has reiterated its warning to close the passage.

For Nigeria, this looming oil shock comes with a familiar boom-or-bust dynamic.

In the short term, higher oil prices offer a fiscal lifeline. As a major oil exporter, Nigeria stands to gain from elevated crude prices through increased foreign exchange earnings and stronger revenue inflows. This has the potential to support budget implementation and debt servicing.

But for consumers, in this case, Nigerians, the consequences are far less favourable, rising fuel and transport costs, increased inflation, and heavier household spending burdens.

In the long term, the situation is even more volatile. Without sufficient domestic refining capacity, consistent investment in renewable energy, or strong fiscal discipline, Nigeria remains dangerously exposed to external oil price shocks.

Since February 2025, global crude oil prices have been on a consistent downward trend, with further declines likely in June 2025.

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Nigeria’s Stance as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Threaten Oil Shock

Global crude oil prices are projected to surge as tensions escalate in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategic waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows (about 20% of global oil and gas), is under renewed threat. Iran, in response to U.S. and Israeli actions, has reiterated its warning to close the passage.

For Nigeria, this looming oil shock comes with a familiar boom-or-bust dynamic.

In the short term, higher oil prices offer a fiscal lifeline. As a major oil exporter, Nigeria stands to gain from elevated crude prices through increased foreign exchange earnings and stronger revenue inflows. This has the potential to support budget implementation and debt servicing.

But for consumers, in this case, Nigerians, the consequences are far less favourable, rising fuel and transport costs, increased inflation, and heavier household spending burdens.

In the long term, the situation is even more volatile. Without sufficient domestic refining capacity, consistent investment in renewable energy, or strong fiscal discipline, Nigeria remains dangerously exposed to external oil price shocks.

Since February 2025, global crude oil prices have been on a consistent downward trend, with further declines likely in June 2025.

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Nigeria’s PMI Remains in the Expansion Phase in May 2025

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reported an overall Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 52.1 points in May 2025, indicating expansion in Nigeria’s private sector. Although there was a decrease from 52.2 in April 2025 to 522.1 in May 2025, the PMI has remained above the 50.0 threshold throughout 2025, signalling sustained growth in business activity.

According to the CBN, a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, below 50.0 signals contraction, and exactly 50.0 denotes no change in business conditions. Although the index recorded a slight decline from its April and March 2025 levels, it remains above the 50-point mark.

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Interest Rates and Deposit Choices: How Economic Factors Shape Nigerian Saving Habits

According to a Dataphyte analysis of deposit data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), savings deposits recorded the fastest growth among the three major deposit categories: savings, demand, and time deposits. While granular, real-time data on deposit types remains limited, the available figures help illuminate how Nigerian private sector deposit behaviour responds to macroeconomic conditions, particularly interest rate and inflation trends.

Between January 2018 and November 2019, Nigerians in the private sector steadily grew their bank deposits. However, the pattern of this growth didn’t always align with classical economic expectations, where individuals are expected to make rational decisions based on their expectations of future prices, wages, and interest rates.

Despite a slight dip in interest rates, from 14% to 13.5%, and persistent inflationary pressures that eroded the real value of money, both savings and time deposits increased steadily. Savings deposits grew the fastest, followed by time deposits, while demand deposits grew slowly.

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Interest Rates and Deposit Choices: How Economic Factors Shape Nigerian Saving Habits

According to a Dataphyte analysis of deposit data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), savings deposits recorded the fastest growth among the three major deposit categories: savings, demand, and time deposits. While granular, real-time data on deposit types remains limited, the available figures help illuminate how Nigerian private sector deposit behaviour responds to macroeconomic conditions, particularly interest rate and inflation trends.

Between January 2018 and November 2019, Nigerians in the private sector steadily grew their bank deposits. However, the pattern of this growth didn’t always align with classical economic expectations, where individuals are expected to make rational decisions based on their expectations of future prices, wages, and interest rates.

Despite a slight dip in interest rates, from 14% to 13.5%, and persistent inflationary pressures that eroded the real value of money, both savings and time deposits increased steadily. Savings deposits grew the fastest, followed by time deposits, while demand deposits grew slowly.

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We release in-depth research publications and publish compelling data-driven reports on a wide range of topics.

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