2023 Campaigns: Remembering Buhari’s Economic Oppositions, his Bwari Elitist Opponents, and other Binary Opposites
As politicians from various parties begin a very anticipated campaign season towards the 2023 elections and Muhammadu Buhari’s government prepares to enter its lame duck mode in February 2023, Nigerians wonder what legacy this government leaves behind and what the new presidential hopefuls would do the same way or differently.
While candidates from opposition parties like Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) promise to do certain things differently, the Campaign Council of Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling party has promised to further tow the path of the incumbent President Buhari.
Mr Tinubu, in his letter of appointment of Governor Yahaya Bello as the National Youth Co-ordinator of the Tinubu-Shettima Presidential Campaign Council wrote:
“Together, not only can we ensure victory for our party in the February 2023 election but we shall also move Nigeria along the path of national greatness…by building on the achievements of the President Muhammadu Buhari APC administration in providing progressive good governance to Nigerians”, Premium Times reported.
However, more than any previous administration in recent times, the Muhammadu Buhari-led government has supervised a great deal of economic contradictions, ethnic conflicts, and several ethical concerns.
Thus, it is important to set the records straight, to help Nigerians measure and understand President Buhari’s governance deficits and be able to set a standard for his successor.
Besides, the new Presidential candidates need to explain to the people how they intend to not repeat the brutal killings and kidnappings that endured under Mr Buhari watch, which finally led to a motion for his impeachment.
The presidential hopefuls also need to state categorically whether the citizenry would again endure the unprecedented desecration of the judiciary by security officers with impunity, which occurred under Mr Buhari’s watch.
The Buhari Economic Oppositions
Precedence is President Buhari’s first economic opposition. According to the World Bank/AfDB 2020 Africa Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) ratings, Nigeria’s Economic Management (debt policy, fiscal policy) and Structural Policies (trade policy, financial sector development) all worsened under Buhari’s administration, compared with his predecessor.
Likewise, when the 2023 campaigns are over, when the collation of the 2023 election results are over, and when the ceremony for the next president in 2023 is over, those who will manage Nigeria’s economy in the next 4 years would be measured not only by Buhari’s immediate worse economic management but also by President Jonathan’s worrisome management of the country’s total reserves as well.
While aspiring political candidates are free to make promises like the presidential aspirants will repeat now that the campaign season has started, the people ought to sit each candidate down in sober statistical discussions and demand that they set themselves against objective measurements that are above par quantitatively, that are above the precedent government’s, and that are above pairs in Africa and the world.
In essence, the opposition checks and balances that Nigeria’s democracy needs to survive the current onslaught is no longer only a government’s opposition party but the government’s parity with outstanding precedents at home and pairs abroad.
When President Buhari’s administration is not performing worse than his predecessors’, it yet faces another set of oppositions.
Pair African Governments are the second opposition when appraising Mr Buhari’s economic performance. When Nigeria under Buhari’s watch is compared with countries with unfortunate economic situations, Nigeria ranks as more unfortunate in its governance (quality of public administration, quality of budgetary and financial management).
Compared to its unfortunate pairs, the quality of public administration under Nigeria’s incumbent president is comparable only to countries in “fragile and conflict affected situations”.
The quality of governance under President Buhari is not only below par (below average: 2.5 of 6 points) and below the 2.82 average for Sub-Saharan Africa, it is also worse than the average performance of governments of heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC), of least developed countries of the world, and of low income countries.
The incumbent administration is not doing well also in its quality of budgetary and financial management, when compared to its pairs in the world. While the Buhari government managed to achieve a mediocre score of 3 of 6, it manages the budgetary allocations and scarce public funds worse than heavily indebted poor countries and the low and middle income countries.
Although the AFDB did not publish Nigeria’s rank and score in economic management for the 2020 year, the World Bank put out 2 of the 3 criteria (Fiscal Policy - 3.5; Debt Policy - 4.0), which averages 3.75. This could place Nigeria in the middle of the table at 19th among 38 countries.
Distinguishing itself from Nigeria’s, the Rwandan government’s Economic management tops with a score of 5.3. Nigeria’s West African neighbours, Burkina Faso and Benin governments’ come second and third with a 4.8 score.
Nigeria’s Economic Management Vs. its African Pairs (2020): Nigeria’s Average - 3.75
(1 = Low; 6 = High)
Source: World Bank; AFDB
Same for Structural Policies, the World Bank put out 2 of the 3 criteria (Financial Sector Development - 2.5; Trade Policy - 3.0), which averages 2.75. This could position Nigeria in the bottom fourth of the table at 31st among 38 countries.
Again, the Rwandan government’s Structural Policies come top with a score of 4.7. The Kenyan government comes 2nd with a score of 4.4, while Buhari’s West African neighbour, the Senegalese government, comes 3rd with a 4.3 score.
Nigeria’s Structural Policies Vs. its African Pairs (2020): Nigeria’s Average - 2.75
(1 = Low; 6 = High)
Source: World Bank; AFDB
For governance proper, the World Bank put out 3 of 4 criteria (Property Rights and Rule-Based Governance - 3.0; Quality of Budgetary and Financial Management - 3.0; Quality of Public Administration - 2.5), which averages 2.83. The 2.83 scores could place Nigeria in the bottom third of the table at 28th among 38 countries.
Outclassing Nigeria’s, the Rwandan government’s Governance comes top with a score of 4.9. Nigeria’s West African neighbours, the Senegalese and Ghanaian governments, come 2nd and 3rd with a 4.6 and 4.3 score respectively.
Nigeria’s Governance Vs its African Pairs (2020): Nigeria’s Average - 2.83
(1 = Low; 6 = High)
Source: World Bank; AFDB
The Bwari Elitist Opponents
Two elitist oppositions evolved in July. The first was an attack on soldiers at Bwari who belonged to an elite brigade of guards that principally protected the president and the entire presidential institution.
The aftermath of Bwari was an attempt on Buhari by elite members of the National Assembly, who insisted that the Bwari incident was one too many and that the President should be served a conditional notice of impeachment.
The Bwari ambush on soldiers of the elite 7th Guards Brigade of the Nigerian Army remains a historic chapter in the annals of the Buhari presidency. After all, it was after this incident that the House of Assembly ever heard a motion to impeach President Muhammadu Buhari, whatever the outcome was.
The Guards Brigade is in charge of the security of the president, his immediate family, the Vice President, Very Important Personalities (VIP) and the security of Abuja and its surrounding states.
Regrettably, at least 2 officers and 8 soldiers of the Brigade were killed while on internal security operations at the Nigerian Law School, Bwari, a suburb of the FCT, the Sun reported.
Following the Bwari incident, “senators who are members of opposition parties walked out of the Senate chamber after the Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, shot down a motion on insecurity and possible impeachment of Mr Buhari”, according to Premium Times.
Then, the Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Ndudi Elumelu, urged his colleagues to stay away from Abuja during their long holiday due to the security situation.
“I want to beg members, Abuja is no longer safe; please, if possible, go back to your constituency. The place is so insecure,”. Mr Elumelu stated this Wednesday after the Deputy Speaker, Idris Wase, announced that the House would adjourn till September 20, Premium Times narrated further.
While many saw the impeachment move as a welcome development, others wondered, why now? - when the killing of civilians and servicemen was commonplace under the incumbent administration, and when the President had less than a year to complete his maximum 8-year tenure.
However, Mr Elumelu’s prayers gave a hint as to why members of the National Assembly moved for Buhari’s Impeachment - the opposition’s displeasure at the state of insecurity had nothing to do with the precious lives of the soldiers that were killed nor the civilians that have died in their tens of thousands - it had all to do with the proximity of death and terror to their erstwhile safe elitist havens in Abuja.
Mr Elumelu’s comment came at a time when the federal government had ordered all schools to shut down due to fears of repeated attacks and when residents of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) were living in fear and anxiety.
Of course, there were reasons for Abuja residents to fear. The Bwari incident was just after the Islamic State of West Africa (ISWAP) overpowered the security agents at the Kuje Prisons in the FCT, setting free more than 800 inmates held at the custodial centre. They killed one operative (personnel of the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) identified as Iliyasu) and four inmates, the Vanguard informed.
This twin event in July 2022 caused a lot of anxiety in Abuja, the country’s federal capital, even though the events in question were no big deal in every other part of the country.
In the last 10 quarters alone, from January 2020 to June 2022, 21,153 persons were killed. Of these fatalities, civilians were 10,969, criminals were 8,387, and Federal security personnel were 1,797.
According to Dataphyte Research’ classifications, the civilian fatalities include non-combatant civilians (10,713) and vigilantes (256) - local and state counter-terror and anti-crime policing initiatives, as distinguished from the federal military and paramilitary bodies.
The criminals killed in action were 4,499 Bandits-terrorist, 2,840 Boko aram- terrorists, and 1,048 other criminals that include IPOB members, cultists, armed robbers, sea pirates, etc.
The Federal security operatives killed include 1,144 soldiers, 541 policemen, and 112 paramilitary officers that include men of the NSCDC, NCS, NIS, FRSC, and DSS.
Fortunately, the number of soldiers killed in action had reduced from its peak of 221 fatalities in the first quarter of 2021 to 31 fatalities this last quarter (Q2 2022). Policemen killed had also reduced from the peak of 133 in Q2 2021 to 37 in Q2 2022.
However, lately, from January through March this year, more vigilantes were killed by terrorists than policemen and soldiers. Terrorists killed 84 vigilante men while 67 soldiers and 67 policemen were murdered.
By Q2 2022, the deaths of civilian and federal combatants were reduced further to 31 vigilantes, 31 soldiers, and 37 policemen.
While the numbers of volunteers killed or wounded in the cause of protecting us, our families, and our communities are important for the records, these numbers cannot measure the huge sacrifice of a life lost in the service of humanity.
These numbers cannot measure the emotional and economic impact of these deaths on the families these heroes leave behind or account for the agony of vigilantes, policemen and soldiers who are not dead but are functionally scarred mentally and physically.
Looking forward to the new political dispensation in 2023, improving the welfare of policemen and soldiers and that of their families ought to be a front-burner issue in campaign discussions.
Besides, seeing the increasing sacrifices and needed services of local and state policing from Vigilantes, there is an urgent need to make efforts to fully legalise, fully equip and fully insure their bodies and lives, and to fully assure their families.
Other Binary Opposites
Other binary opposites evolve in the Buhari saga besides that between notorious enemy bandits and Nigeria’s elite brigade, or between the Aso Rock executive leadership and the Abuja elite legislators.
Recently, an unprecedented Bench-Bar binary opposition evolved within the judiciary in the matter of the Chief Justice of Akwa Ibom State and Inibehe Effiong, a legal counsel, who the judge arbitrarily remanded in prison for one month for contempt of court.
The lawyer had objected to the invasion of the courtroom by two policemen armed with AK47s at the orders of the Judge. These were beside the normal police orderly of the judge.
What was common before this was the executive’s lawless incursion into the hallowed halls of the courts.
On one occasion, “Justice Ijeoma Ojukwu of the Federal High Court in Abuja abruptly suspended sitting and fled her court … as operatives of the Department of State Service invaded the courtroom to rearrest Sahara Reporters publisher, Omoyele Sowore, less than 24 hours of releasing him from earlier illegal custody.
Sowore’s lawyer, Mr. Femi Falana (SAN), described the development as a “horrendous, bizarre, and barbaric contempt of court” never witnessed under “even the most brutal of past dictators that had ever ruled Nigeria”, The Punch reported.
President Buhari did nothing about this incident or other cases of the executives’ desecration of the courts.
Earlier, there was also the executive lawless incursion into the legislative chambers, for which Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, a Professor of Law, in acting capacity for President Buhari who was recuperating abroad, showed regrets and remorse by sacking the head of the DSS for that executive impudence.
Armed and masked officials of the Department of State Services blocked access into the National Assembly complex. The armed men prevented staff, legislators and journalists from entering the complex, the Punch reported.
Unfortunately, the judiciary now emboldens gun-throttling policemen to intimidate and bully law officers right in court. Coincidentally the Buhari administration is not an ardent believer in rule-based governance, with a worse CPIA score of 3 of 6.
Nonetheless, several commentators agree that increasing lawlessness in the judiciary would be the final undoing of the Republic.