2023: Of Prophecies, Punditry, Politics and Petrol Pilferers
This week has seen a number of Nigerian clerics dominate the front pages of our newspapers. Some for the weight of their words, and others for the presumed implications of their claims, all in the context of 2023 general elections.
Notable among these clerics are Pastor Enoch Adeboye, Imam Nuhu Khalid, and Pastor Tunde Bakare.
Myth of Presidential Curse
In a video that has now gone viral, Pastor Bakare, General Overseer of Citadel Global Community Church, formerly known as Latter Rain Assembly, said that the Igbo have not produced president because they were under a curse.
Hear him…
I was at Imo State and I told them the reason why the Igbo cannot rule Nigeria and I want to remove the curse today. Do you know what happened? The day Tafawa Balewa was killed, they removed his turban, poured wine on his head, forced him to drink, and shot him. In the process, he cursed them saying, ‘none of your tribe will ever rule Nigeria.
Pastor Bakare later told the people he wanted to "break the curse today because this generation of Igbos was not part of those people." And then he announced that he had reversed the curse of Tafawa Balewa over the Igbo generation.
Henceforth, the Igbo’s will have access to the throne like any other Nigerian, he said.
Now, it's possible that Pastor Bakare may indeed have seen a presidential 'curse', but it does appear that data, rather than prayer, could provide better insights into how to "break the curse".
Ndigbo Politics of 'Regional Exclusion'
Since 1999, people of the five South-Eastern states in Igboland have always aligned with the People's Democratic Party (PDP), especially in presidential elections.
In 1999, the five states voted overwhelmingly for Olusegun Obasanjo, who went ahead to poll 18,738,154, representing 62.78% of total votes ahead of Olu Falae of the AD–APP, who polled 11,110,287, representing 37.2%. This trend was largely maintained through 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and even 2019 with slight variations in results.
In 2015, the region supported Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP who swept away 96%, 97%, 93%, 96% and 80% of the total votes in Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo states, respectively. Jonathan, however, lost to Buhari in the general elections.
In 2019, Abubakar Atiku of the PDP secured over 75% of the vote in two states, Anambra and Enugu, with significant outings in other parts of he region.
In contrast, even though they align with PDP in presidential elections, the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) has significance influence in governorship and other local elections, especially in Anambra state.
In 2019, APGA ranked 5th across the country and was one of six parties to garner over 50,000 votes, with 62% of APGA’s votes coming from Imo and Anambra alone.
Interestingly, while the region has aligned with parties with nationwide structure at national elections since 1999, it has barely shown any willingness to align with people from other regions, notably the north, to build consensus as part of winning people's trust within the years.
Consequently, the PDP that has enjoyed its support in presidential election since 1999 hasn't deemed it fit to zone its presidential ticket to the region, ostensibly because of the intrigues of regional politics of numbers.
Still, on the other hand, the region has been most taciturn in its reception of the APC, part of which informed the failure of APGA to work fully with other opposition parties (ACN, CPC, ANPP) to form the APC in 2014.
Yet as Nigeria's electioneering records have shown, every sub-region willing to produce a president from the south must work with and maintain alliance with the north.
In 2019, although there was low national voter turnout, the average of 35% still showed a huge North (41%) and South (27%) divide in regional voting strength. It's been argued that Northerners are more politically active than Southerners, hence the North's numerical strength that every Southern sub-region must key into.
No Election 'Winning State' in Igboland
As data from presidential elections since 1999 shows, anyone hoping to win the Nigerian presidency must win in key northern states of Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina, as well as Lagos.
In 2019, data showed how Jigawa proved to be another state that must be won to clinch the presidential seat. In the presidential elections of 2019, Kano (1.9mn votes), Kaduna (1.7mn), Katsina (1.6mn), Lagos (1.15mn) and Jigawa (1.14) all proved to be the deciding states.
Interestingly, none of this key states is in the South East.
In effect, what the data is showing is that for Ndigbo to clinch the presidency, the people need to key into alliances with other regions, and demonstrate some level of flexibility in working with other politicians from outside of the region.
Definitely, the region has no business with 'breaking some Balewa curse'.
Or maybe it does... just so that the data would appear clearer and more discernible.
Digital Imam Stirs Controversies
The Apo Legislators Quarters Central Mosque Committee on Monday officially sacked the suspended Chief Imam of the mosque, Sheikh Muhammad Nuru Khalid (Digital Imam), for not showing remorse for his attitude that led to his suspension.
Sheikh Khalid was on Saturday suspended by the committee for delivering an 'inciting' sermon in which he advised people not to vote in 2023 general election unless politicians respond to critical security questions. His sermons came in the wake of the Abuja-Kaduna train attacks.
Surprisingly, the Imam only echoed the fears of many stakeholders who have taken time to look at the scary numbers Nigeria continues to churn out in areas of insecurity ahead of the general elections next year, including the Christian Association of Nigeria.
Data from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) shows that an average of at least 10 Nigerians died daily in various violent attacks reported in the news media from January to December 2021.
Data crunched from the CFR showed that last year, although a hitherto peaceful south-east recorded high spate of violent attacks and killings, the north and its three subregions remain hotbed of violent attacks.
The north-west region recorded the highest number of reported deaths with 1,963 deaths, followed by the north-central with 1,248 and the north-east with 548.
Imam Khalid resides in the north and, expectedly, only echoes the sentiment of the region having felt its pulse.
Prophetic Jeremiad
Pastor Adeboye, General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), hugged media headlines when he claimed that the government confirmed that significant part of Nigeria’s oil production is lost to theft.
Interestingly, in presenting his claims, the man of God brought 'data' and newspaper references to the table.
Hear him:
More than 80 per cent of all the oil we are producing is been stolen and nobody has denied it, it came from the government…. Who is the one stealing the oil? Where is the money going to? 80 per cent of what should have been the income of a nation is going into the hands of some people. What do they want to do with the money? Who are the foreign nations buying this stolen oil? How many of these nations of the world are your friends?
The danger of Daddy GO's claim, however, is that it exposes Nigeria's culture of poor data collection and sheer administrative anyhow-ness, which gives room to speculation and other managerial disasters.
Data Lacuna
Pastor Adeboye's jeremiad isn't the first of its kind. But the pastor's thoughts raised dust because it is different from voices that aren't probably considered quite as celestial.
For instance, Tony Elumelu of the United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc recently claimed that 95 per cent of oil production is lost to oil thieves. His claims have been echoed by a number of other key oil industry players.
But the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has a different story to tell. The body has only reported that Nigeria lost about 115,000 barrels per day (bpd) to oil theft and vandalism between January 2021 and February 2022, put at about $3.27 billion worth of crude oil. Within the period, reported production numbers have remained at 1.5m, even as OPEC and allies have increased Nigeria's unmet quota by over 100,000 barrels.
Unfortunately, in its elaborate tradition of poor data collection, it remains unknown what percentage of Nigeria's oil is being stolen.
Weeks ago, both the NNPC and the Ministry of Petroleum admitted that the nation has no record of how much oil it consumes.
Data provided by the NNPC over time, which has proven to be grossly unreliable, ranged from between 50 million litres per day to around 103 million litres, depending on the underlying subsidy incentives.
In effect, an oil-dependent nation has no record of how much oil it produces, how much it refines, how much it distributes, and how much it consumes.
The big poser:
What exactly does it cost Nigeria to monitor its oil fields, gather and build reliable datasets?