2023: Peter Obi’s Forte, Bola Tinubu’s Fourth and Atiku Abubakar’s Send-off? (Part 2)
Just when discussion about his actual chances at the polls is generating interest, Peter Obi this week hugged media headlines when he announced his trip to Egypt to understudy the third biggest economy in Africa after South Africa and Nigeria.
Although the Egyptian trip has generated too many conflicting reports, Obi has maintained that the trip remains a means of gaining insights into the development stride of Egypt, especially in power generation and education.
In six years, Egypt has jumped 68 ranks in terms of electricity production from the 145th rank to the 77th, and that success is attributed to public investments directed at upgrade and expansion in the sector.
According to data published by the Egyptian New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA), renewable energy plants, including wind, photovoltaic (PV) and hydropower stations, across Egypt produced a total of 4,735 GWh of electricity in the first quarter of 2022. The total amount of installed electricity generation capacity, according to World Data, reached about 59.53 thousand megawatts as of 2019/2020
By December 17, 2020, Egypt's power generation capacity recorded 59,063 megawatts while that of the distribution networks hit 164,000 megavolt-ampere (MVA) rising by 12,560 MVA, a report in the local Egypt Today claims.
Despite being endowed with large oil, gas, hydro and solar resources, Nigeria has the potential to generate 12,522 MW of electric power from existing plants. But according to USAID, on most days, it is only able to dispatch around 4,000 MW, which is insufficient for a country of over 195 million people.
When the Egyptian developmental records are placed against Nigeria’s, Obi’s Egyptian trip becomes quite plausible.
Structure Vs Ideas
Yet for many, in the context of electioneering, with a major election to be held today in Ekiti, the Egyptian trip becomes quite questionable. The big concern remains: between ideas and structures, which matters more in electioneering?
The Ekiti election, which is held today, has the Labour party fielding a candidate for the governorship. In the tradition of Nigerian politics, presidential flag bearers of parties are expected to boost the morale of the local people with their presence in states in which elections are held. But Obi, like his PDP counterpart (Atiku) has failed to visit the state. His Labour Party itself is struggling to establish its independence in Ekiti, debunking recent rumour that it collapsed its structures into that of the APC in Ekiti.
All of these are bound to affect not just the LP in Ekiti, but Obi’s already slim chances in the general elections.
In the 2018 governorship election in Ekiti, the APC—which was in the opposition—garnered 197,462 votes representing 51.34% of the total votes cast to beat the then ruling PDP in the state, which had 177,927 votes, representing 46.26%. All of the remaining parties, including Obi’s LP, recorded 9,205 votes, representing a miserably low 2.39% of total votes cast.
With the ruling APC in the state consolidating on its strength with mega rallies, it is quite instructive that it may reflect in the formidable presence of the party in Ekiti, and its flagbearer, Bola Tinubu.
Fourth Attempt
By securing the APC party ticket in the party’s primary elections, the 2023 election promises to be Tinubu’s fourth major attempt at electoral battle—not by proxy as a ‘godfather’, but as a candidate.
Tinubu as a politician had his first electoral battle in 1993 when he was elected senator to represent Lagos West Senatorial District. After dictator Sani Abacha dissolved the Senate in 1993, Tinubu became an activist campaigning for the return of democracy.
Tinubu’s second attempt came upon return to democracy in 1999, when he contested the governorship seat of Lagos as candidate of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). He won the election overwhelmingly by polling 841,732 votes, representing 81.99% of the total votes cast.
His distant rival, Dapo Sarumi of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, polled 184,900 votes representing 18.01% of the total votes cast, according to details on open-source website Wikipedia.
He would consolidate on that victory in his third electoral battle in 2003 by defeating his closest rival, Funsho Williams, of the People's Democratic Party (PDP). Other rivals who lost to him in the 2003 governorship contest are Lanre Rasaq of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP); Kofoworola Bucknor-Akerele of the United Nigeria People's Party (UNPP); Adewunmi Abbass of the NCP; and Dimejila Muren of the ARP.
What could have been his fourth direct battle was shelved in 2007 when he reportedly dropped his senatorial ambition for Senator Ganiyu Solomon. Since then, he has NOT been on the ballot for any elective position; he has only backed candidates to win elections, including Tunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode, Muhammadu Buhari, Abiola Ajimobi, Ibikunle Amosun, Adams Oshiomhole, Kayode Fayemi, Jide Sanwo-Olu, among others.
With the 2023 being his fourth and—in the context of his reported health conditions—most significant electoral battle, what awaits the acclaimed Jagaban Borgu at the polls next year?
Turaki’s Send-Off?
Since his entry into politics in 1989, Atiku Abubakar has unsuccessfully contested five times for the Office of President of Nigeria. Moving from different parties to another, the Turaki Adamawa has struggled to actualize his presidential dream.
He contested, first, in 1993——and then later in 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019.
In 1993, he contested the Social Democratic Party presidential primaries and lost to Moshood Abiola.
In 2007, he was a presidential candidate of the Action Congress in the presidential election, emerging a distant third behind Umaru Yar'Adua of the PDP and Muhammadu Buhari of the ANPP.
In 2011, he contested the presidential primaries of the People's Democratic Party but lost out to then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.
In 2014, he joined the All Progressives Congress ahead of the 2015 presidential election and contested the presidential primaries but, yet again, lost to Muhammadu Buhari.
In 2017, he returned to the Peoples Democratic Party and was the party presidential candidate during the 2019 presidential election, again losing to incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari.
Last month, he was chosen as the Peoples Democratic Party candidate in the 2023 Nigerian presidential election.
With age, health and his famed “war chest” (read as financial resources for electoral battles) depleting after every electoral cycle, Atiku Abubakar seems to understand that this is his last chance at taking a shot at the Nigerian presidency.
Finally, will he emerge the next Nigerian president or would the next election contest be his send-off party?