A Glorious Exit: The Good, the Bad, and the Buharian
The law gives Muhammadu Buhari till 12 noon May 29, 2023 to vacate Nigeria’s highest office for the second time as the number one citizen of Nigeria.
But this exit is one with a difference. For the man, it is a glorious one!
“I got what I wanted and will quietly retire to my home town,” he said.
“I consider myself lucky to have been a governor, minister, head of state and now President for two terms,” he added.
“I think it is a good coincidence for me to say goodbye to you, and thank you for tolerating me for almost eight years,” he concluded.
This time he is not forced out of Dodan Barracks, Lagos. Instead, he is the one who now longs to leave Aso Rock, Abuja.
“I am eager to go. I can tell you it has been tough,” he said last July.
Again, we all must praise either the conflicted deities of the fatherland or the cooperative doctors in a foreign land for this glorious exit of Buhari. One of these revived our president when he was very ill.
Thus, General President Muhammadu Buhari (GPMB) not only survived disgrace from an un-found certificate, dethronement by an unsuccessful coup, sorry, impeachment, but he also escaped death from undisclosed cancer.
And finally, he has overcome the rats that resisted his entry into his office and the rumours that his doppelganger, Jubril of Sudan, had acted for him at some time during his presidency.
Now that everyone is sure that it is Buhari of Nigeria that will exit the office of the President this May, let’s see the markers of his 8-year tenure - the good, the bad, and the Buharian markers.
Wait! What are Buharian markers?
A moment. We’ll surely get to that.
Let’s discuss the good markers first. These are the 8 things Buhari improved in his 8 years in office.
1. Buhari managed Nigeria’s State Security Threats better than his predecessor
The Fund for Peace adjudged Nigeria a highly insecure place with an 8.7 score in its security apparatus score, where a score of 10 represented the worst forms of security threat faced by a failed state.
However, the organisation, which produces the Global Annual Fragile State Index, weighed Buhari’s government to have managed security better than his predecessor, by considering the following 4 points:
Monopoly on the Use of Force
Military: Is the military under civilian control?
Militias: Do private militias exist against the state?
Paramilitary: Is there paramilitary activity?
Private Forces: Do private armies exist to protect assets?
Guerillas: Are there guerilla forces operating in the state? Do they control territory?
Relationship Between Security and Citizenry
Professionalization of Police: Are the police considered to be professional?
Political Violence: Is violence often state-sponsored and politically motivated?
Government Response to Security Threats: Is the government dealing well with any insurgency or security situation?
Force
Use of Force: Does the military and police maintain proper use of force?
Accusations of Police Brutality: Are there accusations of police brutality?
Arms
Arms Proliferation: Is there a high availability of weapons?
DDR Program: If in reconstruction, is there an adequate plan for demobilization, disarmament and reintegration of former combatants?
2. Buhari’s government addressed certain religious and ethnic group grievances more than all his predecessors
According to the Fund for Peace, “The Group Grievance Indicator focuses on divisions and schisms between different groups in society – particularly divisions based on social or political characteristics – and their role in access to services or resources, and inclusion in the political process.
“Group Grievance may also have a historical component, where aggrieved communal groups cite injustices of the past, sometimes going back centuries, that influence and shape that group’s role in society and relationships with other groups.”
It appears Mr Buhari’s emergence as the President and his unconventional approach towards inclusion in appointments, compensated not a few aggrieved groups in the country.
However, the Fund for Peace notes that “Groups may also feel aggrieved because they are denied autonomy, self-determination or political independence to which they believe they are entitled.”
This may be the case for self-determination groups such as the Independent People of Biafra (IPOB) and the Nigerian Indigenous Nationalities Alliance for Self-Determination (NINAS).
3. Buhari’s administration reduced economic inequality among the people
Now this can’t be true! You can feel it everywhere. People are becoming poorer every day…😡
Yes.
But it happens that the poorest too are emerging to be among the poorer. When that happens, the poor who become poorer complain while the poorest who become poorer exhale.
Dataphyte Research fact-checked The Fund for Peace’s estimations on Nigeria’s reducing inequality with World Bank’s data and found it credible, at least till 2018.
Economic Inequality has been on the decline in Nigeria since the return to civilian rule in 1999. It is to the credit of Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration that it reduced inequality among the people the most till now by 11.8 points, World Bank data shows.
To his own credit, Muhammadu Buhari met inequality on the rise again from 35.5% to 35.9% in 2015. He has succeeded in reducing it by 0.8 points to 35.1% as of 2018, according to the most recent data from the World Bank.
And economic inequality has decreased even further since 2018.
The Fund for Peace estimations for Nigeria suggests that, while inequality still remains relatively high, it further decreased from 8.3 points in 2018 to 7.7 points in 2021 and just recently rose to 8.1 in 2023.
4. Human Flight and Brain Drain Reduced under the Buhari Administration!
Now, this must be a huge joke!
Do these guys know what is called Japa?
Or could some mole in Buhari’s party, the ruling All Progressive Congress, work for the Fund for Peace?
The Japa wave is worse than Brain Drain and Human Flight!
But is that really the case?
Dataphyte Research noted that “In 2021, One million, One hundred and Nine Thousand, Six hundred and Twenty-one passengers (1,109,621) arrived the country, while One million, One hundred and Nine Thousand, Five hundred and Twenty-Five (1,109,525) passengers departed.
“Two things could be responsible for this. Many of the people who are travelling out are also returning, or more foreign citizens are relocating to Nigeria to replace citizens who are relocating abroad.
“Why are people turning or returning to Nigeria?
“Despite the reckless steering of the ship of state, some folks seem to understand the vast blessings and huge potential this country offers now and in the future. In other words, they jasi,” the Data Dive explained.
5. Buhari’s government earned more Legitimacy than his 3 Predecessors
Fine. Nigerian governments do not have great approval ratings among their citizens. But that also depends on who you ask or which demographic, ethnic or religious group you are asking.
“Though the State Legitimacy indicator does not necessarily make a judgment on democratic governance, it does consider the integrity of elections where they take place (such as flawed or boycotted elections), the nature of political transitions, and where there is an absence of democratic elections, the degree to which the government is representative of the population of which it governs,” the Fund for Peace explained.
In its estimations, the Fund for Peace considered these points:
Confidence in the Political Process
Confidence in Government: Does the government have the confidence of the people?
Political Opposition
Peaceful Demonstrations: Have peaceful demonstrations occurred
Riots & Uprisings: Have riots occurred?
Transparency
Corruption of Federal Officials: Is there evidence of corruption on the part of federal officials?
Accusation of Corruption of Officials: Are federal and/or local officials considered to be corrupt?
Openness and Fairness of the Political Process
Political Rights: Do political rights for all parties exist?
The makeup of Government: Is the government representative of the population?
Leadership Transition: Have there been recent peaceful transitions of power?
History of Leadership Transitions: What is the longer term history of transition of power?
Perception of Elections: Are elections perceived to be free and fair?
Monitoring of Elections: Have elections been monitored and reported as free and fair?
Political Violence
Political Assassinations: Are there reports of politically motivated attacks and assassinations?
Armed Insurgents: Are there reports of armed insurgents and attacks?
Terrorism: Have there been terrorist attacks such as suicide bombings and how likely are they?
6. The Buhari Administration’s Human Rights Abuse records surpassed only the Obasanjo Government’s
The Nigerian government has one of the worst records for human rights abuse and disregard for the rule of law.
“The Indicator looks at whether there is widespread abuse of legal, political and social rights, including those of individuals, groups and institutions (e.g. harassment of the press, (the) politicization of the judiciary, internal use of (the) military for political ends, repression of political opponents).” the Fund for Peace notes.
Regarding this, the Buhari administration is assessed to have recorded lesser human rights abuses and lighter disregard for the rule of law compared to his 2 immediate predecessors.
“The Indicator also considers outbreaks of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence perpetrated against civilians.
"It also looks at factors such as denial of due process consistent with international norms and practices for political prisoners or dissidents, and whether there is current or emerging authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are suspended or manipulated," the Fund for Peace notes.
7. Buhari’s government considerably reduced the need for External military and humanitarian aid
The Buhari government stabilised the military and humanitarian concerns of the country better than all his 3 immediate predecessors.
During his government, Nigeria had less need for external intervention in this regard. The Fund for Peace based its annual assessment on these points:
Political Intervention
External Support for Factions: Is there external support for factions opposed to the government?
Force Intervention
Presence of Foreign Troops: Are foreign troops present?
Military Attacks Across Borders: Are military attacks from other countries occurring?
Military Assistance: Is there external military assistance?
Military Training: Are there military training exercises with other nations or support of military training from other states?
Peacekeeping: Is there a peacekeeping operation on the ground?
Training of Police: Is there external support for police training?
Covert Intervention: Are covert operations taking place?
Economic Intervention
Economic Intervention or Aid: Is the country receiving economic aid?
Dependency on Aid: Is the country dependent on economic aid?
Overall, during Buhari’s tenure, the Nigerian State became less fragile than he met it
With a 2023 score of 98 of the 120 highest state fragility scores, Nigeria currently ranks as the 15th most fragile state out of 179 countries, according to the Fund for Peace's latest Fragile States Report.
The trend shows that Aso Rock was least fragile in 2006, towards the close of the Olusegun Obasanjo administration, with a state fragility score of 94.4. This peaked at 103.5 in 2016 during the early years of Muhammadu Buhari's administration.
The good news is that Buhari successfully managed the State’s affairs and lowered the state fragility score to 98 in 2023, his exit year.
On account of all these, Buhari is leaving the Nigerian State on a firmer Aso Rock than at least 2 of his predecessors.
Do you really believe that?
Let’s see next week as we look at this fact(s) from the other side.
As we await this, let’s give a thought to our legacies - the good, the bad, and the typical - in the family, at work, and in our physical and virtual communities.
Enjoy your weekend - with a firmer state of mind and a less fragile view of life.
See you on Saturday!