Maths, Myths and the Limits of NATO’s Might

As Putin unleashed his fury on the people of Ukraine, the West responded with a flurry of sanctions and not with NATO’s famous firepower. Neither the EU nor NATO responded to President Zelenscky’s desperate cry for military help to deter Russia from further slaughter of its citizens. 

Besides the refugees and displaced people from Ukraine, the spectacle of bodies being thrown one over the other in hollow mass graves compares only to what you see regularly, as some western media reported, only in Africa and other third world countries.

NATO’s restraint from engaging Russia militarily is widely reported to be a response to Russia’s threat of very devastating consequences for members of the group. The possible consequences include Russia’s deployment of its rich arsenal of biological, chemical and nuclear weapons against vulnerable NATO countries, if NATO dare try to save the people of Ukraine. 

It is also presumed to be a possible tactic to lead Putin on to lose his diplomatic goodwill among the nations of the world, as predicted by as the recent UN vote to condemn Russia confirmed.

Yes, NATO’s resort to the deployment of economic and financial sanctions against Russia could be a systematic and cost-effective warfare against Russia’s strategic but costly show of strength in Ukraine.

The downside, however, is that, overtime, progressive countries of the world may lose confidence in NATO to protect them against the onslaught of bullies. This may reduce NATO to a global monetary power bloc, and retire its image as a formidable military hegemon to the world’s museum of myths.

Going by the maths of the war, The US ranks 1st, globally, in terms of capacity for conventional warfare while France and the UK, its fellow NATO countries and permanent members of the UN security Council, rank a distant 7th and 8th respectively. On the other side, Russia ranks 2nd, and China, its only ally among the 5 permanent members in the UN security council, ranks 3rd.

According to Global Firepower, the ranking “utilizes over 50 individual factors to determine a given nation's PowerIndex ('PwrIndx') score with categories ranging from military might and financials to logistical capability and geography.”

Maths ratios as this explain why Ukraine is defenceless against Russia’s destruction of the soil and soul of its nation. But they also explain why the world looked the other way when America reduced Iraq into rubbles in search of nukes that weren’t there.

NATO’s might is also limited by the fact that only one of it members, USA, has something near Russia in terms of nuclear warheads.

And the world’s reluctance to directly resist and stop this rampaging injustice against innocent children, women and men in Ukraine justifies the idea that Russia’s might is right even if it’s murder of innocent people is wrong.

Might is Right: Why the World cannot save Ukraine from Russia

Russia’s invasion and destruction of Ukraine was met with open support by Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria, and Russia’s envoy to the United Nations (UN). It was greeted with a tacit support by China, Cuba, India, Pakistan, Mali and 30 other countries who abstained from voting, and a feeble condemnation by the rest of the world who voted to condemn Russia’s actions.

Thanks to Vladimir Putin, the notion that humanity had evolved beyond the ‘might makes right’ idea has finally been put to rest. In 2022, we see our conflicted civilisation divided between those who are bewildered by the bloodbath going on in Ukraine and those who give their blessing to the morbid spectacle, and worse still, those who stay aloof so they can gain from both sides of the divide.

It is possible that some of the countries who support Russia’s destruction of Ukraine do not relish the senseless horror going on there. They only insist that if America’s might made right in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, then Russia’s might makes right in Ukraine, and indeed anywhere you find a weaker military might.

Also, the world cannot save Ukraine from Russia because of the latter’s large scale, long range lethal weapons, just as no one could save Iraq from the US and the UK, and no one prevented Saudi Arabia from producing thousands of corpses in Yemen.

What encouraged nations to continue fighting wars after the World War II in 1945 is a simple mathematical calculation - the estimation that there would be no apocalyptic scale destruction, at least of one of the sides in the battle.

Whenever one side of the battle knows that if they try Hiroshima on the opponent, they would get Nagasaki in return within split seconds, they always resort to reason, reflection, and rigmarole instead of their usual aggression, as is the case of NATO over Ukraine, currently.

This is why 141 countries voted for a resolution to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and did not dare pass a resolution to confront Russia over Ukraine. 

Maths is Right: Ukraine and the 21st century Cold War

President Zelenscky said Ukraine is enduring a proxy war between Russia and the US, reminiscent of the cold war that persisted for decades between the United States and the USSR.

During the cold war the USSR and the US did not confront each other directly, for obvious fears that it could lead to the end of the world as we know it. Instead they competed for influence and allies across continents and countries, either ideologically, economically, or militarily.

The maths behind a cold war is that instead of Russia engaging the US, its equal and formidable enemy, directly, it will attack, degrade and punish a vulnerable country like Ukraine instead, for swaying its allegiance towards Russia’s real enemies such as the US led NATO or the EU.

Going by the maths of the war, Russia has approximately 3 times the military personnel of Ukraine, 5 times its ground combat vehicles, 16 times its air force capabilities, 32 times its naval force capacities, and 6,255 nuclear warheads where Ukraine had none.

“Throughout the Cold War the United States and the Soviet Union avoided direct military confrontation in Europe and engaged in actual combat operations only to keep allies from defecting to the other side or to overthrow them after they had done so. Thus, the Soviet Union sent troops to preserve communist rule in East Germany (1953), Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968), and Afghanistan (1979). 

For its part, the United States helped overthrow a left-wing government in Guatemala (1954), supported an unsuccessful invasion of Cuba (1961), invaded the Dominican Republic (1965) and Grenada (1983), and undertook a long (1964–75) and unsuccessful effort to prevent communist North Vietnam from bringing South Vietnam under its rule”, the British Encyclopedia recorded.

NATO and Europe’s patience and reluctance towards martial combat in the face of Russia’s provocations in Ukraine teaches one great lesson: To get away with murder, all you need is a few nukes to your name. Nothing fully guarantees a country’s immunity from Russia-like invasion, except the possession of sufficient nuclear warheads with intercontinental reach.

Beyond the Maths of War: Battling Russian Bombardments and NATO’s Betrayals

Going by the ranking of military might, many understand that Ukraine’s military doesn’t stand a chance in a duel with Russia’s. Yet there were 2 popular expectations in the event that Russia invades Ukraine that have been proven wrong.

First, when Russian troops invaded Ukraine and ordered the Ukraine troops to just walk back and surrender, many thought the Ukrainian military would concede defeat without one single shot fired. Rather they replied “Russia.. Fuck you”. 

The brave Ukrainian President refused to leave the country, prepared to pay the price for his people’s freedom from Russia’s dreadful shadow with his blood. His cabinet stayed put and stood their ground, leaving Russia with no choice than to show it is only bullying an inferior power in vain. Definitely, it has lost its respect by Ukrainians forever.

Secondly, many relied on NATO to help stop Russia’s aerial bombardments and massive destruction of lives and infrastructure in Ukraine, but Zelensky’s plea for NATO to declare a no fly zone in Russia fell on deaf ears. 

Even the EU and NATO members in Europe have not committed themselves to the level of economic sanctions against Russia that the US demands from them. 

As much as the US is ready to isolate the world’s major markets from buying Russia’s oil, the EU has been reluctant, because it meets a significant proportion of its energy needs through Russia’s oil.

Seeing this weak link, Putin recently decreed that countries which opposed its military action in Ukraine would be subjected to pay for their oil supplies in Russian Rubies instead of the usual US dollars. 

Beyond the maths of war, the weak proved willing to fight and die, and the strong unwilling to die to fight another day. So, the devastation and deaths in Ukraine goes on.

Beyond the Myths of War: Uncovering Conflicted Europeans and Courageous Africans

The Ukrainian war would go in history as a deeply revealing war. First, the Ukranian predicament demytholised the long-held myth that, after World War II, Europe had advanced past its own self-destruction. 

The western media in denial of the morbid moving pictures they saw in Ukraine found it hard to report the evidence that war, bloodshed, death, destruction, and misery was not only the lot of Africa and the Arab world, but of blonde Europe too.

They instead reported their long-held validation of human humiliation to be the lot of non blonde Africans. They reiterated instead that refugees need to look Arab, stripped and clueless, and not the distressed middle class europeans they saw seeking for refuge in Poland and other neighbouring countries to Ukraine.

Secondly, the Ukrainians themselves, who’d seen themselves as a superior race to the African students and residents thought it inconceivable that people of colour deserved to choose life over death.

The Ukrainian officials set up an Apartheid regime immediately, that read: “Ukrainians and whites only”. Africans girls and women were denied access to exit trains. African students were denied entry at Polish borders. Pets were allowed in trains at the cost of vulnerable people of colour. People of colour were left out to freeze and die during long treks under biting cold.

The greatest truth about Europe that Russia helped amplify in Ukraine is that many white folks would rather die with their pets in Hell than live with people of colour in Heaven.