Nigeria’s 2023 Elections: On Poll Approvals and Appraisals, Poll Antecedents and ongoing Appointments
While the ceremonies around the demise of the United Kingdom’s longest-serving monarch, Queen Elizabeth, were still on, Nigeria’s political discourse shifted with the result of a controversial opinion poll on presidential favourites in the forthcoming 2023 elections, by ANAP foundation.
This was followed in quick succession by polls from two other reputable polling organisations.
Using different methodologies, results from the 3 polling organisations put Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, ahead of all other presidential candidates in the forthcoming 2023 elections.
The 3 polling organisations are NOI polls which conducted the poll online for ANAP Foundation; Premise Data Corp. which conducted the poll online for Bloomberg; and We2Geda which conducted the poll for Daily Trust using telephone interviews.
In the result of the poll conducted and released by the ANAP Foundation, Mr Obi was ranked first, defeating Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).
Tinubu and Atiku shared the second position, while Mr Kwankwaso came to a distant fourth position in the poll.
However, here is a note of caution: 47% of the respondents were either undecided yet or refused to respond to the poll question.
It has been a few months since Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso dumped Nigeria’s largest opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to pick the presidential tickets of the Labour Party (LP) and New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) respectively.
The All-Progressives Congress (APC) and PDP have produced the presidents and controlled the National Assembly, and governed all but a few of the 36 states of the federation since the Fourth Republic began in 1999.
However, the supporters of the minority parties, especially those of Mr Obi, believe that the apple cart is about to be upturned. The NOI opinion poll that put the LP candidate at the head of the standings before the campaigns formally begin on 28 September, lends credence to their belief.
The former Anambra governor is widely seen as the biggest threat to the candidate of the ruling APC, Bola Tinubu, and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP.
The trio dominate discussions on Twitter in Nigeria. This trend has set the stage for tantalising electioneering from 28 September.
Election Antecedents before the Polls (1993-2019)
There are two reasons the recent polls may be showing a departure from election antecedents, where region/ethnicity and religion have been the absolute determinants of presidential election outcomes between 1993 and 2019.
First, the destruction of the northeast, northwest, and northcentral states by Islamic insurgency and banditry throughout President Muhammadu Buhari’s, a Muslim northerner’s, regime is weakening the religion, region and ethnic card.
Besides, Afenifere, the foremost southwest Yoruba sociocultural group, and a significant number of people from the southwest are not supporting Bola Tinubu, even though the candidate is from southwest Nigeria.
The body language of the former President Obasanjo, a notable political influence in the country also betrays his preference for Peter Obi over his kinsman and candidate from the Southwest, Bola Tinubu.
However, election patterns from 1993 till the last election in 2019 show that ‘Nigerians’ continuously vote along regional/ethnic and religious lines only. Data support this position, in the chapter authored by Joshua Olufemi, titled “Let figures now lead, and ideas follow”, in the compendium, Remaking Nigeria: Sixty years, Sixty voices:
“When a presidential aspirant from the southwest region (SW) faced an opponent from the northwest region (NW), the SW voted 86% and 91% in 1993 and 2003 respectively for the eventual SW winner. They voted 58% for a south-south (SS) winning candidate, while their votes declined from 55% to 49% respectively for a winning candidate from the NW in 2015 and 2019, respectively.
Source: Remaking Nigeria: Sixty years, Sixty Voices: Let Figures now Lead and Ideas Follow
The SS region appears to be able to countenance any presidential candidate from other parts of the country except the NW. Alongside with the Southeast (SE), they voted lowest for the aspirant who eventually won, and who was from the NW in 2015 and 2019.
For the SE, the only time they felt the presidential aspirant represented them was in 2011, with a presidential aspirant from the SS. They led all the other regions in the vote for the winner of that election with an unprecedented 98%.
The northeast region (NE) always voted a little above the NW for the winning presidential candidate that was outside the North as a whole, and they voted a little less than the NW when the winning candidate was from the NW, even in 2019 when they had a candidate from NE.
The north central region (NC) reflect an aggregate of SW, SE, NW and NE sentiments in all elections. Where the winner of a presidential election was from the south, the NC’s highest votes was 70%, and when the winner was from the north, the region’s highest vote was 58%.
The 3 recent polls suggest that this election trend is set to be disrupted by the Peter Obi movement, but it is not yet clear how far the disruption could go.
Obi’s Lead: Poll Approvals and Partisan Appraisals
The campaign councils of the 3 prominent presidential candidates in the 2023 general election have dismissed the recent NOI opinion poll, that projected Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) flag bearer, ahead of them.
The LP candidate got 21%, while the APC and PDP candidates garnered only 13% each from the poll said to have been conducted across the six geo-political zones in the country. Although, the researchers did not disclose the methodology and the number of people that participated in the poll.
Speaking on Channels Television’s “Politics Today”, the spokespersons of the campaign councils of the NNPP, PDP and APC took turns to discredit the outcome of the poll, saying it was ludicrous.
NNPP’s Appraisal: Rabiu Kwankwaso has the northern part on lockdown
The spokesperson of the NNPP presidential campaign council, Abdulmumin Jubril, said the programme gave credence to the poll which should have been ignored.
Speaking against the projection of the poll that Kwankwaso, a former two-term governor of Kano State, lost the north, Jubril said his principal has the region on “lockdown” and will acquire the rest of the needed votes from the other parts of the country to win the February presidential election.
“Well, that is the extent that I will go in giving any recognition to that statement. It is absolutely false and is not a representation of the reality on ground, particularly if you are talking about the Northern part. I have said this repeatedly, Rabiu Kwankwaso has the northern part on lockdown, in a matter of three to four months, the fact will emerge,” he argued.
“Let me say this, NOI poll projected that Jonathan would win the 2015 election, but he lost, which included many other works (NOI) has done. There is no work that they have done, where you can say that the projections are right or anything.”
Weighing the chances of both Messrs Tinubu and Atiku against Kwankwaso, Jubril described the APC presidential candidate as “a good person (pilot) in a bad party (aeroplane) called APC.”
He said Mr Obi and supporters are disruptive but admitted to the chance of Atiku picking a fair number of votes across the country in the election.
Contrary to the claim by Mr Jibrin of the NNPP, the NOI polls did not project the then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan to win that year’s election.
In a statement issued on 16 February 2015 to announce the results of the polls, ANAP Foundation said “the figures put General Muhammadu Buhari in a slight lead (32%) over President Goodluck Jonathan (30%) indicating a 2% lead.”
Mr Jubril’s conclusion that none of the NOI polls in the past have been correct is also not based on the facts.
The poll for the 2019 presidential election, released by the foundation on 14 February, indicated Buhari was leading his main opposition candidate, Atiku, but declared that the election was too close to call. President Buhari went ahead in defeating Atiku with almost four million votes, winning in 19 states.
NOI had also correctly projected victory for President Jonathan in 2011.
PDP’s Appraisal: 57.5% of people who follow Peter Obi do not live in Nigeria
In his reaction, the PDP campaign spokesperson, Daniel Bwala, said Mr. Obi is basking in the euphoria of social media hallucination. He dismissed the result of the NOI poll and vowed to throw a party if the LP candidate is able to win just three states in the South-east, widely considered to be his stronghold.
Mr. Bwala dismissed the poll on the ground that it failed to provide size of the participants, methodology and the margin of error which are basics in conducting a poll.
“I know they said it is a random sampling. But then, because of the result I am tempted to believe that this polling was carried out online because Peter Obi has a measure of people who are very active for him online much more than the other candidate and I will tell you why.
“There was an algorithm and data analytics that was carried out that came up with the finding that 57.5% of people who follow Peter Obi and engaged for him on social media do not live in Nigeria. In fact, the majority of whom are bots on Twitter, they are not real human beings.
However, an initial poll by We2Geda for Daily Trust conducted by phoning random respondents in Nigeria disproves Mr Bwala’s claim that Mr Obi’s supporters are not in Nigeria and may be mere online bots.
APC’s Appraisal: Poll results concocted and meant for the trash can
In his own reaction, Bayo Onanuga, the spokesman of the APC presidential campaign council, said the poll that gave Obi a lead was “concocted and meant for the trash can.”
He disagreed that Tinubu, believed to have an edge in the Southwest, had only 18% of votes in the region, according to the poll.
“If you look at it, the reason why you have to dismiss this is this, the NOI poll gives our candidates 18% in the South-west, that is our own base. You don’t need to do any opinion poll to know that that is the stronghold of our candidate.
“And they went to the North-east and gave our candidate 18% again, whereas the same people gave Peter Obi 64% in the South-east. You can see that there is no logic in this thing,” Onanuga debated.
However, the Premise Data poll by Bloomberg does not corroborate Mr Onanuga’s analysis. Instead, it corroborates the NOI poll results for ANAP Foundation. Bloomberg reported that:
Of the 92% of participants who said they’ve decided on who to vote, 72% named Obi as their first choice.
Of those who are still unsure, 45% said Peter Obi is their preferred candidate.
On its methodology, Bloomberg said Premise Data Corp. surveyed 3,973 Nigerians from September 5 – 20.
Respondents to the online poll were selected from quotas developed by age, gender, and location across the country’s six geopolitical zones.
Yet, the Spokesman of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, Festus Keyamo, APC describes the Bloomberg poll as delusional. ‘’The report of Bloomberg Africa said it used an APP to conduct an opinion poll in Nigeria where more than 95% don’t have access to such apps. This style is even lower in credibility than when you send people to the field. This is the most delusional poll I have seen since I was born’’, the lawyer said.
ANAP’s Appraisal: No Clear Winner yet
A statement that Mr Atedo Peterside, founder of ANAP Foundation, personally signed read in part: “The results showed a significant lead for Mr. Peter Obi with 21% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today, and 13% each proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who are both tied in second place. Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3% of voters proposing to vote for him.”
Mr Peterside said the latest poll was conducted in early September and asked respondents the same question: “Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?”
However, the statement said only just over a half of the respondents said they had made up their minds on whom to vote for on 25 February, 2023. “Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 32% and 15% respectively.”
Peterside submitted that, “While these Poll results show some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters, as it appears they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.
“In summary, our September 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner, as the undecided voters are large enough to turn the tables. However, ANAP Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the four leading candidates only.”
Dataphytes’s Appraisal of the Polls
The Dataphyte Research team notes some factors that could have resulted in the outcomes of the latest polls.
One is that, Peter Obi has been the most active so far among the major candidates in direct electioneering, not distracted by internal politics in their parties, unlike their two major rivals.
Next, Mr. Obi has no vanquished opponents in the Labour Party to conciliate, no members aggrieved by party primaries to reconcile and no party leaders to consult or brief over his plans.
Instead, he has concentrated his efforts on overt public relations, meeting with former presidents, diplomats, Nigerians in the Diaspora and even aggrieved members of his opponents’ parties. He has also been appearing on television for interviews.
Also on social and conventional media, local and international media, Obi has been the most visible of the candidates, egged on by the hype and cheers of his supporters. While he is at all that, his supporters, who are largely self-driven, have been busy testing their own boots on the ground.
His supporters have also bullied their rivals almost into silence on social media, in particular on Twitter. Given the domination of Obi’s supporters on social media, it is likely that he would win every online poll regardless.
Polls Outcomes corroborate Obi’s Disruptive Antecedents
Also, the notion that Mr. Obi is so popular in his section of the country, the Southeast, as the polls suggest, while his opponents drew only mild support in their own redoubts, defies the electoral histories of all the candidates.
History suggests Obi is the least loved and influential among his people.
While Messrs Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso all won the governorship elections in their states handsomely at the first try, Obi’s governorship win came through the court three years after the poll. Atiku did not use his popular governorship mandate in 1999, having been nominated as a running mate to Olusegun Obasanjo and serving as vice president for 8 years.
Though Kwankwaso lost his first re-election bid in 2003, like Atiku and Tinubu, the NNPP candidate has since become a political force at least in his home state, helping many candidates into office after their tenures.
Mr. Obi does not have that profile.
He has never had the support of the elite and political establishment in his home state
He never had a majority of his party members in the Anambra State House of Assembly throughout his 8 years as governor.
Since he left APGA after a dispute with his successor that he helped install, he is not known to have helped many candidates to election in the state, certainly, not any governor.
His stay in the PDP did not help the party reclaim the governorship seat from APGA or help his party elect the senator for his district.
It is also known that Obi stormed out of the PDP largely because of the hostility shown to him by leaders of his party in his home zone.
The South-east is the only zone being governed by three different parties, none of the governors affiliated or even sympathetic to Obi.
Of course, the desire of the zone to produce the next president may be changing this narrative, and galvanising some support there behind Obi, especially among the masses. The Southeast elite may be reconsidering their apathy towards the 61 year old, as he appears to be gaining wide acceptance by the people outside the region.
These factors may explain his popularity in the South East depite his history as a political loner in the region.
However, if the poll correctly reflects Peter Obi’s popularity in the zone, it leads to fears of its flipside. History shows that presidential candidates who are adored in their own region of the country usually earn distrust outside it.
This was the thinking about Obafemi Awolowo of the Second Republic’s Unity Party of Nigeria and President Buhari of the ANPP and CPC. They were held with suspicion outside their regions for the same reasons they were beautified in their own parts of the country.
But in Obi’s case, the poll suggests that he is also well-loved outside his own section of the country, almost as much as his opponents in their home zones. That seems like a political oxymoron, given these historical antecedents.
Yet many observers remain sceptical about Obi’s chances. As a more or less independent candidate, he has put himself up against the structures of the established political parties.
There has been no notable experienced politician who has defected to the LP since he took its ticket, which may indicate that the big actors have not yet seen the tide turning in his direction.
More importantly, his opponents have the apparatuses of government (govenors) in their control and will deploy these viciously in protecting their territories, even in the South-east.
Mr. Obi is the only known candidate of the LP. In many states, voters do not know the party’s governorship and other candidates. In such states, the contest for these offices remains between the candidates of the APC and PDP whom they have probably known across seasons. In how many parts of Nigeria have voters voted for different parties for different offices, especially in elections that hold the same day?
Mr. Obi would have rewritten history next year if he records the feat these polls suggest. More so, to do so with a party that has no deep financial roots or national structure may be daunting.
Ongoing Appointments
Jonathan: Just Keeping Appointments?
Former President Goodluck Jonathan has urged Nigerians who are eligible to vote in the 2023 general elections to elect credible leaders to ensure good democratic governance in the country.
The former President stated this during an interactive session with journalists in Minna, the Niger State capital, briefly after paying a visit to former military Head of State, Abdulsalami Abubakar, at his residence.
Jonathan revealed that his visit to Abubakar was a yearly ritual, saying, “and is nothing special.”
He added: “It has been over a year since I visited the state. As the youngest former president, I go around from time to time to visit them. I haven’t seen him for quite some time, and you know he just came back from medical treatment abroad. So, it is proper for me to come with some of my friends to pay a courtesy call and greet him. We also made a stop at retired General Babangida’s house to see him. It is a regular visit we always do.”
He wished Abubakar well, adding, “because we need him, especially now that we are talking about the 2023 elections. You know he chairs the National Peace Committee that tries to midwife the peace process during elections, this is the time he is much needed.
I know there will be so much pressure on him now to see what he can do so that the 2023 elections can be conducted freely and fairly and, in an environment, where there is peace and love”, he said.
Kwankwaso: Booking an Appointment?
The NNPP presidential candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, also visited the former military Head of State, Abdulsalami Abubakar.
Kwankwaso wished him quick recovery and informed him of his intention to run for the 2023 presidential election.
Abubakar expressed optimism about the ability of the former Kano State governor to reposition the country for optimal performance.
“You have done very well as a governor of Kano State and if given the chance, you will be able to provide basic infrastructure that would better the lots of the governed,” he told the former governor.
APC Appointments
The APC and its presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, unveiled a 422-man committee comprising political heavyweights and other notable members to pilot the various sub-committees of the campaign council, the Punch reported.
The campaign council chaired by the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), has Tinubu and the APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, as co-deputy chairmen.
Simon Lalong, the Plateau State Governor, retained his position as the director-general
Adams Oshiomhole as the deputy director-general (Operations)
Bayo Onanuga is the Director of Media and Publicity.
Atiku Bagudu, Governor of Kebbi State and Chairman of the Progressives Governors Forum was appointed the vice-chairman and state coordinator.
Godwill Akpabio, ex-Akwa Ibom State governor, is the vice-chairman, South-South.
Uju Kennedy, a former female APC presidential aspirant, is the council’s vice-chairman, South-East.
Governor Badaru Abubakar of Jigawa State is the regional coordinator and chairman for North,
Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi State was appointed the regional coordinator for the South-East and Ebonyi State.
Governor Ben Ayade of Cross River was also appointed the regional director in charge of the South-South and his state.
Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo State is the zonal coordinator for the South-West and his state,
Governor Abubakar Bello, of Niger State is the zonal Coordinator for the North-Central and his state.
Governor Muhammed Yahaya is the zonal coordinator for the North-East and Gombe State
Governor Bello Matawalle of Zamfara State is the zonal coordinator for the North-West and the state.
Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State as the National Youth Co-ordinator
The exclusion of several notable members of the APC from the Campaign council such as Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo; former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara; former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal; former Minister of State for Education, Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba; Osita Okechukwu, among others, suggests a great divide in the party.
PDP Appointments
On the other hand, Nigeria’s main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has named the Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, as the Director General of its 2023 Presidential Campaign Organization (PCO). The party also named the Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Udom Emmanuel, as the chairman of the Presidential Campaign Council (PCC).
The PDP, in a document released on Thursday, by its National Organising Secretary, Umar Bature, listed a total of 326 persons as members of the campaign team.
According to Bature, the Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, was appointed as the Vice Chairman (North) of the PCC.
Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State was appointed as the Vice Chairman (South) of the same council.
Liyel Imoke and Adewale Oladipo have also been appointed as Deputy Director General Operations and Administration respectively.
Both Raymond Dokpesi and Okwesilieze Nwodo are to serve in the capacity of Deputy DG Technical and Systems and Research and Strategy respectively.
Governor Nyesom Wike and other governors of the party are members of the team.
The PDP also appointed Ike Ekweremadu a former Deputy President of the Senate, as a member of the party’s 2023 Presidential Election Campaign Council, despite being detained in London.
The party has Atiku Abubakar as its presidential candidate in the election slated for 25 February next year. Mr Abubakar was the country’s vice president between 1999 and 2007.
With Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State at the forefront, the crisis rocking the party has been tied to the imbalance in sharing of party positions, a reason there have been calls for the removal of Iyorchia Ayu, the national chairman, for a southern person.