Oil matters arising for Nigeria + Nigeria’s entertainment potential
For the final five months of 2024, Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production exceeded the OPEC+ quota of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd).
This increase was attributed to the enhanced security measures in oil-producing regions and efforts by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) to boost output.
At the same time, illegal refining remains a persistent challenge. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) uncovered 39 illegal refineries in the Niger Delta in a single week (January 25–31, 2025).
This follows 55 and 58 discoveries in the two preceding weeks, bringing the total to 152 illegal refineries uncovered in the last three weeks of January alone.
Over the past five years, Nigeria's average monthly crude oil production has recovered significantly despite previous production decreases in 2021 and 2022 according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
This also reflects the effects of security reinforcements and government measures.
According to data from the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), the frequency of oil spills in Nigeria has generally declined over time, although there have been occasional spikes, such as in 2022 and 2023.
However, spill volume does not always correlate with spill frequency. Some years witnessed fewer incidents but larger-scale spills, showing the varying severity of each occurrence.
For instance, despite the high number of oil spills in 2023, the total volume spilt was significantly lower than in previous years.
With claims that enhanced security measures in oil-producing regions have driven the recent surge in crude oil production, the number of oil spills caused by theft and sabotage serves as a key indicator of losses due to illegal activities.
By December 2024, sabotage and theft-related oil spills had fallen to 26 incidents, marking a significant 58% decrease from the 62 incidents recorded in March 2024. This decline might be due to government-led interventions including intensified pipeline surveillance, military patrols, and crackdowns on illicit refineries are yielding tangible results.
The direct relationship between reducing oil spills caused by sabotage and oil theft and increasing crude oil output is evident in Nigeria’s production trend. As spill-related losses declined, crude oil production steadily rose, surpassing the OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the final five months of 2024.
Even though these developments are encouraging, maintaining and growing Nigeria's crude oil production would necessitate constant surveillance and increased security to further curb oil theft.
As Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria has also set an ambitious target of increasing daily production by nearly 60% to 2.7 million barrels per day (including crude and condensate) by 2027, according to an adviser to the country’s president.
A key strategy behind this planned expansion is leveraging oil condensate production, a lighter, more volatile hydrocarbon that allows Nigeria to remain largely compliant with its OPEC+ crude oil quota of 1.5 mbpd, according to Olu Verheijen, Special Adviser on Energy to President Bola Tinubu. She emphasized that improvements in security around oil production and transportation sites are the primary drivers behind rising output.
Rising Stars: Unleashing Nigeria's Entertainment Potential
Tems' recent success at the 2025 Grammy Awards and the record-breaking box office performance of Everybody Loves Jenifa, which earned an impressive N1.12 billion, marks a significant milestone for Nigeria's entertainment industry. These achievements also underscore the industry's growing economic potential.
However, despite its successes, the industry's contribution to Nigeria's GDP has stagnated, remaining within the 4% bracket over the past five years. This indicates that its expansion has not been substantial enough to drive an increase in its contribution to the country’s economic growth.
This may suggest structural limitations or challenges from both the government and the industry in fully harnessing the sector's economic potential.
According to the NBS GDP report, the real GDP growth of Arts, entertainment, and recreation grew modestly by 3.9% within the last 5 years. It increased from 4.12% in 2019 to 4.28% in 2023.
Although the industry’s contribution to the economy has stagnated over the past five years, it performed better than most sectors in the economy, having the 11th-largest real GDP growth rate in 2023.
This highlights its resilience and sustained relevance despite economic challenges, structural limitations, and fluctuating performance.
In 2023, the industry achieved a significant 15% average revenue growth—the highest among Africa's leading entertainment markets, surpassing South Africa's 11.7% and Kenya's 5.8%.
This growth was driven by Nigeria’s large population and advancements in technology, including the rise of streaming platforms like Netflix and YouTube, which expanded consumer reach, as well as the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence tools for more efficient and increased production.
Despite the revenue growth in 2023, the industry contributed a mere 0.23% to the overall real GDP growth of the country within the same time period.
Systemic challenges such as piracy continue to impede the economic contributions of the entertainment industry to the national purse. For instance, the film industry makes an estimated loss of $18 million yearly because of piracy.
Other challenges such as a shortage of skilled talent and human capital, limited access to advanced technology and filmmaking equipment, poor copyright regulations, restricted funding, weak foreign direct investment, lack of industry structure, and inadequate project development and business planning continue to hinder the sector’s full potential.
To unlock its full economic impact, Nigeria's entertainment industry requires stronger partnership between the government and private individuals in the sector, enhanced intellectual property protections, increased investment in infrastructure, and policies that encourage local and foreign capital inflows.
Addressing these barriers will be crucial in transforming the sector from a promising yet constrained market into a dominant global force.
Thanks for reading this edition of Marina and Maitama. It was written by Adijat Kareem and Lucy Okonkwo, and edited by Joachim MacEbong.
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