PPO: Mirage, Mistake, or Miracle?

President Peter Obi: A Mirage, Argentine Mistake, or Another Miracle

Welcome to February! All survivors of a humbling January 😉.

Never mind that the government has extended those 3 costly queues of January into February - the Naira queue till February 10, the PVC queues till February 5, and the fuel queues reserved for forever.

The 3 queues are related and could influence the outcome of the forthcoming general elections starting February 25. One of those who believe so is Nasir El Rufai, the Governor of Kaduna State:

“I must say that the naira redesign and fuel scarcity are the handiwork of fifth columnists because they want to bring the country down. Otherwise, why must redesigning of the naira be the priority of the Federal government at this time?” El Rufai queried. 

Also, one presidential candidate that recognises the possible negative outcomes of these queues on election outcomes is Bola Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress (APC).

“Let them increase the price of fuel and hoard it; let them hoard money, the naira, we will go and vote and we will win. Even if they change the ink on naira notes; whatever their plans, it will come to nought. We are going to win. Those in the PDP will lose (Won Ma Lule)”, he said.

However, unlike their principal’s open confrontation of the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, in his recent speech in Abeokuta, Tinubu’s supporters don’t seem to mind Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s Presidential Candidate. 

They only advise Peter Obi that he ought to queue behind their Principal’s 2-terms of 8 years before he runs for office.

“Peter Obi should queue after Tinubu for eight years”, the Nation Newspaper posted on its website, and Twitter handle.

“Peter Obi can indeed change Nigeria, but it’s not yet his turn. He must wait on [sic] the queue for Tinubu, then after 8 years he can come again”, the Nation added on the accompanying visual to its post.

Going by the pro-Tinubu queue proponents, the people may need to wait in another eight-year-long queue before they could find the needed change to the country’s socioeconomic retardation. 

Despite these unchecked political misuses of people’s lifetime on avoidable queues, we may not have so much of a harsh February 2023 as earlier predicted.

The reason is there is one memorable day we didn’t factor in for February. All harsh feelings may last for the first half of the month, but tender love comes on the 14th! 💌

Well, and tender heartbreaks too 💔. 

Yet, the levity of Valentine’s day’s comic relief doesn’t reduce the gravity of the general elections commencing on the 25th of the month.

Besides the historical significance of February 14th stands the rhetorical question of February 25th - President Peter Obi: Mirage, Mistake, or Miracle?

Can the rising star PO come high enough to become PPO just within a year of its emergence? Will the sun and moon, whichever Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar are, bow to this younger star of Peter Obi’s this February?

Let’s throw the dice 🎲.

President Peter Obi: A Mirage

The 3 foremost presidential candidates, Bola Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (PDP), and Peter Obi (LP) are contesting for a total of 93.5 million (93,522,272) votes. 

Each hopes to get the best votes across the country, especially from states with large voter populations such as Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Rivers, Katsina, Oyo, and Delta, the 7 states with over 3.2 million registered voters each.

Even some of Peter Obi’s closest associates believe he is, at best, an idea born out of its time. Peter Gregory Obi, 61, was the third democratically elected governor of Anambra state.

“Whatever happens at the polls on 25th February, Peter Obi can take solace in the oft-quoted 23rd April 1910 ‘Citizenship in a Republic’ speech of the former American President, Theodore Roosevelt as a reminder of what this contest is all about for him. 

In the final analysis, ‘The man in the arena’ is not only the one who defies critics even in the face of sweat and blood but also one who, ‘at the worst’, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat”, Segun Adeniyi, one of Mr Obi’s professed friends, submitted in a candid op-ed.

However, his large followers called the Obidients, believe he will win the February 25 election.

Yet, there are a number of issues that could make visions of his presidency at this time an optical illusion.

• Party Control  -  Although Peter Obi sees God and a hundred million Nigerians living in poverty as his political structure, the current reality in the 36 states of Nigeria shows his party, the Labour Party lacks a comparable on-ground grassroots presence as the APC and the PDP. 

For instance, the Labour Party won no governorship elections in 2019.

Therefore, to stun the well-oiled and effective winning machinery of the APC and the PDP in those states may pose an arduous task for Mr Obi’s Labour Party.

• Next, Peter Obi is widely tagged No Shishi, a virtuous but unpopular byname for one who doesn’t lavish money (in buying votes).

However, it costs about $2 billion, over N1 trillion to win elections in Nigeria, according to a report by the Financial Times.

• Negligible Support from the politicians even in his home state. While Obi appears to have some support from ordinary citizens in his state, the same cannot be said about the politicians from his state. 

President Peter Obi: The Argentine Mistake

Despite Peter Obi’s growing popularity, especially among young voters, it may take the grand mistake of the 2 other presidential candidates for him to emerge victorious in the February 25 polls.

In that case, Obi’s victory over the 2 veteran politicians and their parties could be likened to Saudi Arabia’s soccer team’s stunning of the current world champions, Argentina, in the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

Saudi Arabia ranked 49th of 211 countries before the competition, while Argentina ranked 2nd. 

Like the Argentinan squad, the miscalculations that may make Tinubu lose his strongholds to Peter Obi include:

• His regional-religious tradeoff to win the Northeast. Tinubu’s choice of a Muslim running mate from the same region as Atiku could be calculated to counter the PDP candidate.

Thus, to wrestle the northeast region from the formidable opponent there - Tinubu appointed a Muslim VP from the northeast to counter a Muslim Atiku from the Northeast.

• His reliance on APC governors in the Northwest and the people’s likely embrace of a Muslim-Muslim ticket to win in that region. There are seven states in the Northwest region, out of which APC controls six. In addition, they are predominantly Muslim populations. Research shows that, except for Kaduna, with about 60-79%, Muslim population, Muslims account for over 80% of the population in each of the other 6 Northwest states. 

• His estimation that APC governors and federal legislators in the Southeast and the Southsouth would depreciate the chances of Peter Obi in these 2 regions that could be sympathetic to the latter. 

• His reliance on the APC’s presence and his ethnic popularity in the Southwest to win the region.

• Despite Tinubu’s strategic manouvres, one mistake that may weaken his chances, especially in the Southern and North Central parts of Nigeria is his choice of a Muslim northerner as his running mate.

In a country sharply divided by religion, and with a large Christian population, the choice of a Muslim VP may do him significant harm, especially in Christian populated states. This is besides Tinubu, a Muslim trying to take over from an outgoing Muslim President - a departure from the old political order.

On the other hand, Atiku’s ambition (and misadventure) could give Peter Obi an edge over him, especially in the southern states. This reflects in the following.

• The rebellion by 5 PDP governors (the G5) in the SE, SS, SW, and NC against his emergence as the party flag bearer. The G5 is led by Nyesom Wike of Rivers state - one of the states the PDP got the highest number of votes in 2015 and 2019. 

Others in the G5 are Samuel Ortom of Benue State; Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State; Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu state, and Seyi Makinde of Oyo State. Recall that in 2019, Atiku won in all these states. 

• Some also consider Atiku’s move to succeed Muhammadu Buhari as a political misadventure. Though not written in the constitution, there has been a tradition of power shift between the North and South since the new democratic dispensation in 1999.

With Buhari, a northern Muslim completing his second term in May, by practice, power is to be shifted to the south. But here comes Atiku, a northern Muslim intending to take over from another northern Muslim.

President Peter Obi: Another Miracle

Mr Obi’s antecedents show that he has always defied the odds to achieve political victory.

His victory, this time, as the President of the Federal Republic would be:

• A miracle of the superiority of social media influence over grassroots popularity. No doubt, Peter Obi is popular, especially among the youths, who comprise of 39.65% of registered voters. 

This is in spite of the fact that some Peter Obi’s supporters are not familiar with his party logo. Yet, this is what will appear on the ballot paper. 

For instance, in a tweet by one of Obi’s PCC members, he noted that in a survey conducted, the sampled population was asked the party they will vote for in the February election. 47% of the respondents chose LP. However, when the same question was flipped to the candidate they would vote for, 83.7% said Peter Obi.

• A miracle of the demystification of ethnic and religious strongholds that hold the people’s allegiances.

• A miracle of Olusegun Obasanjo’s endorsement of Peter Obi through an open letter to the youth, at a time Peter Obi suffers open opposition to his presidential candidacy even by the governor of his home state, Anambra - with an open letter.

The former President Olusegun Obasanjo endorsed Peter Obi in an open letter addressed to the youths, educating them that politics and elections are number games, charging them to “get up, stand up and make your numbers count”.

Peter Obi’s victory in the February 25th elections could only be a miracle of the victory of the present over the past, a victory of the future over the present.