Returning to Buhari’s Farm in 2022, Understanding ‘Obesity tax’, Census and Consensus, and Salami’s Sins
“To your farms, O Nigerians!”
That was perhaps President Muhammad Buhari most significant message for Nigerians as they step into 2022. Earlier in the week, the president restated his long-held view that Nigerians must return to farming to tackle economic challenges.
In his first media engagement for the year, conducted by Channels Television's Seun Okinbaloye and Maupe Ogun-Yusuf, aired on Wednesday, Buhari disputed claims that the Nigerian economy has deteriorated since 2015 and advised Nigerians to “return to the farm” as a solution to the nation’s myriads of economic challenges.
"Well, I am not sure how correct your calculations are," he said of the nation’s poor economic indicators, "but all I know is that we have to allow people to have access to the farm. We just have to go back to the land."
That was the president’s response to concerns around inflation rate that jumped from 9% to about 15%; unemployment rate that moved from 9.2% to 33%; and exchange (rate) that moved from N197/$1 to over N400/$1—all between 2015 and 2022.
With the potential of the agricultural sector, the president may have made some valid points.
Last August, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Nigeria’s agricultural sector contributed 23.78 per cent to the country’s overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2021. The figure is lower than the contribution in the second quarter of 2020 which stood at 24.65 per cent but higher than the first quarter of 2021 which recorded 22.35 per cent.
According to the NBS GDP report Q2 2021, there are four sub-activities that make up the country’s agricultural sector: crop production, livestock, forestry and fishing.
But many Nigerians have wondered why the president has remained fixated on farming, not only as a viable means of expanding economic activities but as the cure-all solution to inflation, unemployment, poverty and currency concerns. Others are more concerned about the president’s seeming indifference to the spectre of insecurity.
Data from SBM Intelligence showed that between January 2020 and September 2021, 9,187 Nigerians (civilians and security personnel) were killed across the country, in deaths resulting from Boko Haram attacks, bandits, militia herdsmen, abduction and gang clashes. This has forced many farmers to desert their farms, amid other challenges.
But it appears the president is unperturbed by such concerns. Like the Biblical directive to Israelites, he seems to have given the presidential ‘executive order’ for the year 2022: “To your farms, O Nigerians!”
Of Census and Consensus
There is no consensus on how many Nigerians there are today.
200 million? Perhaps.
220 million? Maybe.
180 million? Oh, well.
Some have even claimed that Nigerians are not up to 150 million people.
Projections. Extrapolation. Speculation.
In essence, people throw numbers around depending on what catches their fancy and where they source their data.
The World Bank Data places the Nigerian population at over 206 million in 2020, while the United Nations
Population Fund data says Nigeria’s 2021 population is slightly over 211 million with a 2.6% growth rate.
The last time Nigeria conducted a census was in 2006 and the result of that headcount put the population of the country at 140.43 million persons comprising 71.3 million Male and 69.0 million females.
In 2022, Nigeria will spend the sum of N177.33 billion on Population and Housing Census, according to the approved 2022 budget.
In Nigeria, Census figures are very sensitive weapons of political power and resource control among states and regions and it is not unusual to see states inflate figures to gain advantages over their peers. This is at the heart of the failure to arrive at consensus, per the numbers generated from the exercise.
As the nation prepares for yet another counting exercise, set to begin in March, Nigerians are hopeful that the exercise will be worthwhile and put the nation’s population conundrum in proper perspective. The big question remains: for an exercise scheduled at such a critical time, a year away from the general elections, could it by chance turn out the nation’s census of consensus? Well…
‘Obesity Tax’
The Nigerian government says it has introduced an excise duty of N10/litre on all non-alcoholic, carbonated and sweetened beverages. The finance minister, Zainab Ahmed, says the new policy is in the Finance Act signed into law by President Muhammadu Buhari on December 31, 2021.
Speaking earlier in the week, the minister said the excise duty on soft drinks would discourage excessive consumption of sugar beverages which contributes to diabetes, obesity among others.
Apparently, the government has found a new cure for these diseases.
As the year progresses, maybe Nigerians should prepare to obey directives on payment of ‘obesity taxes’ and brace up to pay higher for other products with sugary contents including alcoholic drinks, biscuits, buns, cakes, dairy products, and popcorn.
Salami’s Sins
President Muhammadu Buhari on Tuesday appointed Dr. Doyin Salami to serve as his first Chief Economic Adviser.
After stumbling through two recessions, with the country taking a bottom position in key economic indices – unemployment, currency management, inflation—the Buhari government seems concerned about fixing the economy against all odds.
As a former member of CBN Monetary Policy Committee and Chairman of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC), Salami has been quite outspoken in his criticism of the government’s numerous economic policies.
But with less than sixteen months to the end of his tenure, many have wondered why the respected economist would agree to accept such a delicate job from Buhari at the twilight of his eight year reign.
As critic and commentator, Salami may have committed no sin. But as the Chief Economic Adviser for a government whose scorecards on the economy remains in tatters, he may end up as the government’s sin bearer.