To Japa or not to Japa: Between a Fairer Farther Land and a Hopeful Homeland (3)

More than the case was about two years ago, when we dived into Nigeria’s outbound migration, there is a greater urgency to escape now than then. The high cost of living, cases of killing, and the casualties from kidnapping fuel desperation to leave the country.

In this timely throwback, we point to often-overlooked facts to help you make clear decisions to stay and succeed in the country or leave for the better.

First, we explain that the present welfare figures, as poor as they are, may not be your own reality, due to your personal income or the place you live in Nigeria. That’s the way it is around the world.

Next, we estimate that if you earn above N465,000 monthly income as a single person, or you and your spouse each earn above N465,000 in Nigeria, you can access the benefits those who travel abroad seek right here in Nigeria for your 2-3 children.

Lastly, we establish that Nigeria’s poor (general) welfare figures only speak of what is present. On the other hand, Nigeria’s wealth figures speak of what is possible - the opportunities many leave behind to escape, which others come in and explore for untold prosperity.

Enjoy the evergreen conversation.

Facts about Present Figures

Besides the poor and vulnerable who are left without a voice or a choice on whether to leave or stay in the country, several middle-class Nigerians do not feel any urgency to japa (flee the country in search of greener and safer pastures). 

Armed with a global view, they see Nigeria as a place in the global village with its peculiar problems and promise, like everywhere else. Their resolve to stay in fatherland rather than leave for a farther land emanates from one or more of the following: 

• pragmatism about the cost and benefit of leaving and staying.

• sheer pessimism about the often untold vicissitudes of life in foreign lands, or 

• a sense of patriotism and mission for country.

Personal income matters

On the pragmatic point, the moment an adult earns more than N465,000 monthly income in Nigeria, she is not affected by those adverse data on Nigeria’s human capital development!

In fact, she can afford the basic amenities that the average person in high-income countries like the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand afford, World Bank data shows.

Equally, a socially responsible and financially responsive couple that each earns over N465,000 can afford a decent education and health needs of a family of 5.

There is a need to remember that the depressing figures of Nigeria’s stunted human capital development actually describe the lot of about 45% of the population (95 million out of 211.4 million Nigerians), who receive a monthly income of less than N38,173. Going by Nigeria’s poverty line as of 2019, the income ceiling over the poor is lower, at N11,450.

The rest of the population, who receive a monthly income between N94,000 and N307,000, also encounter some of these maladies of the Nigerian economic situation.

However, a Nigerian at home that earns above Four hundred and Sixty Thousand Naira (N463,738) monthly already earns what the average person in high-income countries earns. She may consider it better to live in Nigeria and enjoy a cheaper cost of living.

This Nigerian could afford the nutritional, educational, health, and adult survival expectations in high-income countries.

Among this high-income group (over N463,738 earnings per month), human capital development index (HCI) is 71%. And among the Upper middle income group in Nigeria (N149,623 - N463,738), the index is 56%.

The 36% average HCI score for all the income groups in the country for the year 2020 shows that “a child born in Nigeria just before the year 2020 will be 36% as productive when she grows up as she could have been if she enjoyed complete education and full health. (See the first part of this series for the expected score of your own income level for the 5 sub-indices on health, education and adult survival outcomes).

Location in Nigeria also matters

Again, just as one’s location in the world contributes to the human capital outcomes of that child or adult, one’s location in Nigeria also affects the income, and in turn, the human development outcomes.

For instance, as of 2020, there was 85% chances of a 15 year old child surviving till age 60 all over the world. However, this average score does not define the reality in every region of the world. 

Those in North America, Europe and Central Asia, East Asia and Pacific, Middle East & North Africa, and Latin America & Caribbean all have better adult survival rate than the world average.

Likewise, Urban areas in Nigeria offer more social amenities, greater economic possibilities and income than the rural areas, and in turn, better health, education, and survival outcomes.

Faith in Possible Figures

To see hope in Nigeria, there is a need to understand the figures that economists present.

Socioeconomic figures measure two different but linked aspects of human well-being. The first is the wealth of nations (GDP, GDP growth, Inflation, Interest rate, profits, etc.), and the second is the welfare of societies (income inequality, social security, social infrastructure, inclusion, environmental hygiene, etc.)

Human development indices relate more to the level of income inequality in a country than its average income level.

Thus, many of Nigeria’s negative human development ratings are due more to the large population who live on extremely low incomes, sometimes lower than the average in low-income countries.

When these poor welfare figures are rolled out and compared with those in other countries, it can lead to immediate conclusions that the whole country is poor, unhealthy, and poorly educated and that other countries are simply better than Nigeria.

However, Nigeria’s poor developmental indices (of inequality in wealth and welfare) accurately describe the lot of about 45% of its 211.4 million population that lives on less than N38,173 income per month.

Worse still, since the poverty line in Nigeria as of 2019 was N137,430 per annum, this means Nigeria has over 95 million persons living on less than N11,450 per month in 2022.

Yet, Nigeria is classified as a low-middle income country (better than a low-income country) because its average gross national income per capita falls within that range (with the average income of citizens at N93,898 per month (or between N38,210 and N149,587). 

Yet, the problem is that Nigeria’s median and modal personal income falls way below the country’s global income grouping.

Beware: Welfare figures speak of what is, and not what is possible

To illustrate this, assume that the sum of the salaries of the 10 staff of Company A is N50 million per year. The average income of each staff in that Company would be N5 million per year. This is what is possible.

Again, take another Company B, where the sum of the incomes of its 10 staff is N10 million in a year. The average income of each staff in that Company would be N1 million.

Looking at the average pay of workers in the 2 companies alone, it appears that a worker in Company A can afford better nutrition and recreation, and better health services and standard education for their families than a worker in Company B.

Yet, that is not the case. The better welfare one expects of a worker in an organisation with a staff average income of N5 million is found in Company C.

In Company C, each staff is expected to earn N5 million like in Company A. But because there is less inequality in Company C than in Company A, the middle-level staff earns N2.5 million. The majority of staff earn that same amount too.

So what does the natural human instinct say? Resign from Company A and apply for employment in Company C. 

Now, which group of staff need to move to Company C the most? Those earning N125,000 per year, right?

But, somehow, the application form fee for employment in Company C is N1 million naira.

So, guess the folks that are resigning from Company A. Those staff who can afford the N1 million application fee for employment in Company C.

And who are those? Definitely not Staff level 10. Definitely not Staff level 9. We are left with Staff levels 7 and 8.

That is the case with the demography and income group of those who japa from Nigeria, especially considering 2 better income options as illustrated in the table below:

With the full illustration above, it is easy to see why Staff levels 5, 6, 7, and 8 are tempted to sell all they had acquired over the years, abandon the health insurance they can afford, abandon the good-enough education they can afford for their kids and japa to ‘Company D and E’, even when they have to pay heavy relocation fees (visa, school fees, residence permits) to secure a decent life in those countries.

Believe: Wealth figures speak of what is possible in Nigeria

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product shows its large output and large market, and the amount of income that is possible for an individual to earn, if they deploy their skills and senses appropriately.

While it is pragmatic for a person living on more than N465,000 a month in Nigeria to think of ways to improve that income and life right here in Nigeria, such an individual may also become pessimistic about fleeing the country to the popular destinations when she considers that the huge relocation costs and the higher cost of living in those countries might reduce her current level of wealth without increasing her welfare significantly.

Finally, for some who have realised that the problem in Nigeria is not much of wealth but of wellbeing, and not much of income (GDP and GDP growth over the years) but of income inequality (GNP and GNP decline over the years), this understanding sometimes awakens the patriotic spirit in them.

Despite the poor governance of the state, patriotic entrepreneurs and small business owners who amplify wealth and reduce unemployment, together with high income wage earners (earning above N465,000 per month) who pay their progressive taxes, have been the one reducing inequality in Nigeria over the years.

Although Nigeria still remains a lower middle income country, income inequality, measured by the Gini Index shows that high performing and high earning Nigerians who stayed in the country have done more to reduce economic inequality by 32.4% in the last 14 years.

By 2018, Nigeria matched the UK in the redistribution of wealth among its income groups. High-income countries like Australia and Canada still maintain relatively low levels of inequality but it was better 14 years ago.

Patriotic high-income-earning Nigerians (earning more than N465,000) have made progress in reducing the income gap over the years, even more than several high-income countries.

This presents the hope that, as more people rise up the income ladder from low income through lower-middle-income into upper-middle-income groups and high-income groups, the standard of living in Nigeria would improve, just as much as the high-income countries Nigerians desperately flee to.

When looking at the depressing socioeconomic figures, it is easy to miss out on the little but significant progress made.

In the end, whether you japa or not, Nigeria remains a country of immense economic opportunities. And that is why there are more people arriving in the country than those who are leaving.